Analysis $ETH (1h - 24h)
General Context
Primary Trend
Strong bearish trend over the 24h, with a collapse from 3268.20 (initial high) to 3068.44 (absolute minimum).
Volumes: Peak of sales at 04:00 on 02/02 coinciding with the POC at 3076, signaling an area of strong interest.
Key Levels
The break below the IB minimum (3223.99) triggered the collapse. The Value Area is between 3076.9 – 3196. The current price (3113.41) is within the VA, close to the lower limit (POC).
Support/Resistance
Critical Support: 3076.9 (POC) → breakout would open at 3068.44 (all-time low).
Resistances: 3150-3160 (former local highs), 3196.35 (VA upper limit).
Current Scenario
Price is in the lower third of the VA, with bearish pressure but support near the POC.
Volume: Low volumes in the last hours → market indecision.
Signs of Bearish Fatigue: Bounce from 3068.44 (04:00) and consolidation above 3076.9 suggest a possible accumulation or pause before the next move.
Possible Developments
Bullish Scenario (less likely, but possible)**:
Conditions: Hold above 3076.9 + breakout of 3150.
Target: 3196.35 (VA limit), then 3223.99 (former support turned resistance).
Bearish Scenario (more likely):
Conditions: Breakout of 3076.9 with high volume.
Target**: 3068.44 (historical low), then possible extension towards 3000 (psychological level).
Confirmation Indicators
Increasing volume above 3150 → signal of bullish strength.
High volume below 3076.9 → confirmation of bearish continuation.
Time Auction: If the price spends >50% of the time above 3113.41 → stabilization.
Conclusion
The market is in equilibrium after a strong downtrend. The proximity to the POC (3076.9) makes this area crucial: a bullish reversal would require a consolidation above 3150, while a break below 3076.9 could reactivate the selling. Monitor volumes and reaction to key levels