CME Federal Reserve observation data shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in March is only 17%, while the probability of maintaining the current interest rate is as high as 83%. This data has sparked widespread attention in the market regarding the direction of the cryptocurrency market.
Generally, a Federal Reserve rate cut signifies increased market liquidity and reduced funding costs, leading to more capital flowing into the cryptocurrency market, driving up cryptocurrency prices and providing more profit opportunities for investors. Conversely, if the interest rate remains unchanged, capital inflows into the cryptocurrency market may be limited, increasing upward price pressure. Recently, fluctuations in market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have already had some impact on the cryptocurrency market. When expectations for a rate cut strengthen, the prices of mainstream cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin tend to rise; however, when expectations weaken, market sentiment turns cautious, and cryptocurrency prices often experience a pullback.
Previously, due to economic data, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have significantly decreased. The price of Bitcoin quickly fell back, dropping below the psychological threshold of $100,000, with even more pronounced declines in major altcoins like Ethereum, leading to over $600 million in cryptocurrency long positions being liquidated. Although some analysts believe that Bitcoin's fundamentals remain strong and it still has long-term upside potential, its short-term volatility cannot be ignored. Given the current low probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in March, investors in the cryptocurrency market need to remain vigilant, closely monitor the direction of Federal Reserve policy and changes in related economic data, and make cautious investment decisions to cope with market uncertainties.
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