$XRP

Cryptocurrency Market Overall Recovery**

- If Bitcoin enters a bull market (influenced by halving cycles, Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, etc.), XRP may follow the market's upward trend, especially since its historical performance has a high correlation with BTC.

Technical Upgrades and Ecosystem Expansion**

- Ripple continues to promote upgrades to the XRP Ledger (XRPL) (such as AMM pools, sidechain features). If ecosystem applications (DeFi, NFT) explode, it could enhance the utility of XRP.

Bearish Factors: Challenges That May Suppress XRP Prices**

1. **SEC Litigation Risk Still Unresolved**

- If the SEC's appeal is successful, XRP may be redefined as a security, leading to delistings from exchanges, institutional sell-offs, and other chain reactions, potentially causing a significant price drop.

2. **Intensified Market Competition**

- There are many competitors in the cross-border payment space (such as Stellar XLM and SWIFT's CBDC projects), which may erode XRP's market share.

3. **Selling Pressure from Ripple**

- Ripple holds a large amount of XRP (about 40 billion), and its periodic release of XRP into the market may create long-term price pressure.

4. **Market Sentiment and Speculative Bubble**

- XRP prices are susceptible to news hype (such as litigation progress, celebrity statements), leading to extreme short-term volatility, with speculative attributes outweighing actual application demand.

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### **3. Technical Analysis and Key Price Levels**

- **Short-term Support/Resistance**:

- Support level: $0.45 (2024 low), $0.50 (psychological barrier).

- Resistance level: $0.65 (2024 high), $0.75 (long-term trendline pressure).

- **Long-term Trend**:

- If it breaks above $1.0 (historically significant psychological level), it may initiate a new bull market; if it falls below $0.40, it could further decline.

Whether XRP can increase in price depends on the **Resolution of Legal Risks + Growth in Actual Demand + Recovery of Market Sentiment** resonating together. Short-term price fluctuations are severe; it is advisable to use event-driven signals (such as litigation progress) for trading, and long-term investors should patiently wait for ecosystem applications to explode. **Always remember: cryptocurrency is high risk, invest with caution.**