Altcoin season, or altseason, is the time when altcoins outperform Bitcoin, both in price growth and market dominance. During this period, Bitcoin’s price may increase, but its dominance over the crypto market decreases, making room for altcoins to shine. If you’re wondering when the next altcoin season will kick off and how long it will last, here’s an easy breakdown of what we know from past cycles.
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What Is Altcoin Season?
Altcoin season happens when altcoins (all cryptocurrencies except Bitcoin) experience stronger growth than Bitcoin. This is marked by Bitcoin’s dominance dropping, while altcoins see substantial gains in both price and market cap. Historically, altseason begins after Bitcoin dominance reaches a local peak, and it ends when the TOTAL2 index—the total market capitalization of the top 125 altcoins excluding Bitcoin—hits a new all-time high.
Past Altcoin Seasons: What Do They Tell Us?
There have been two major altcoin seasons in crypto history, both linked to Bitcoin’s cycles. The first altseason began in March 2017, when Bitcoin’s dominance dropped from about 96% to 36% by January 2018. During this time, altcoins experienced a massive surge, with the market cap of altcoins growing by $470 billion, or a stunning 56,425%.
The second altseason took place in Bitcoin’s fourth cycle, starting with an altcoin market cap of $225 billion. As Bitcoin’s dominance fell, altcoins grew, peaking in November 2021 when TOTAL2 hit $1.5 trillion. This season lasted 309 days, with altcoins increasing by 650%.
Bitcoin Halving and Its Effect on Altseason Timing
Bitcoin’s halving events—when the reward for mining Bitcoin blocks is cut in half—appear to play a key role in when altseason begins. In both previous cycles, altseason started roughly 235 days after the halving event:
In Cycle II (2016), the halving occurred on July 9, 2016, and altseason began on March 1, 2017—235 days later.
In Cycle III (2020), the halving took place on May 11, 2020, and altseason began on January 3, 2021—again, 235 days later.
This consistent timing suggests that Bitcoin’s halving is a strong indicator of when altseason could start.
When Will the Next Altcoin Season Begin?
Looking ahead, the next Bitcoin halving is set for April 19, 2024. If history repeats itself, we can expect altcoin season to begin around December 10, 2024, about 235 days after the halving. Based on previous cycles, this altseason could last for 310 days, ending around October 18, 2025.
What Will Happen During Altseason?
During altseason, strong-performing altcoins tend to see massive gains, as we’ve seen in previous cycles. While there are always exceptions, it’s usually the established projects that perform best. In the last cycle, top meme coins dominated, but other sectors like blockchain infrastructure, AI, and decentralized finance (DeFi) also saw major growth. We expect this trend to continue in the upcoming cycle.
Conclusion
To sum up:
When will altseason start? Most likely around December 10, 2024, 235 days after the Bitcoin halving.
How long will it last? Altseason could last 310 days, ending around October 18, 2025.
Which coins will perform best? The top performers are expected to be strong players in meme coins, blockchain, AI infrastructure, and other major crypto sectors.
While past cycles are not guaranteed to repeat exactly, these patterns provide a useful guide for what to expect in the next altcoin season. Prepare for exciting times ahead, as altcoins are set to steal the spotlight in late 2024 and 2025!
