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At 3:00 a.m. tonight (03:00 on January 30), the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. The expected value is 4.5%, the same as the previous value. According to statistics, the probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain the current interest rate unchanged by January is 99.5%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 0.5%. So, what impact will tonight's data have on the cryptocurrency world?
If the Fed keeps interest rates unchanged
1. Hawkish rhetoric
For example, reaffirming that high interest rates will be maintained for a longer period of time may be interpreted by the market as a still tight liquidity environment, which will be directly negative for the crypto market. Crypto assets such as Bitcoin usually rely on a loose monetary environment to attract risk capital, and hawkish statements may lead to capital outflows from high-risk assets to US dollar or bond assets with more certain returns. In this case, the cryptocurrency market may face downward price pressure, especially when market sentiment turns cautious in the short term.