$BTC Bitcoin drop under $75K before April has under 10% chance: Analyst
Bitcoin has a low probability—9.2%—of falling below $75,000 before April, according to Derive’s head of research, Dr. Sean Dawson. This probability has increased slightly from 7.2% in the last 24 hours.
Market Volatility and BTC’s Position
Bitcoin’s recent dip to $97,906 on Jan. 27 followed a broader market downturn triggered by the release of China’s DeepSeek AI model. However, BTC quickly rebounded above $100,000, trading at $102,100 at the time of writing, per CoinMarketCap data.
Dawson attributes the increased probability of a BTC decline to rising implied volatility, which jumped from 52% to 76%, signaling higher demand for put options as traders hedge against downside risks.
BTC and Macroeconomic Trends
Bitfinex analysts note that Bitcoin’s recent price movements reinforce its correlation with the broader financial markets, suggesting BTC is increasingly influenced by macroeconomic shifts rather than just crypto-specific trends.
Meanwhile, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicts BTC could drop to the $70,000–$75,000 range, potentially triggering a “mini financial crisis.” However, he believes this could lead to renewed money printing, ultimately pushing Bitcoin to $250,000 by the end of 2025.