Predicting the specific peak month for Bitcoin in 2025 requires consideration of historical halving cycle patterns, market sentiment, and the macroeconomic environment, but it must be emphasized that **this prediction carries a high degree of uncertainty**. Below is a logical deduction based on historical data and potential variables:

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### **Historical Halving Cycle Patterns**

The time windows for the peak of Bitcoin's bull market following its previous three halvings are as follows:

- **2012 Halving** (November): The peak occurred **12 months** after halving (November 2013, price approximately $1,150).

- **2016 Halving** (July): The peak occurred **18 months** after halving (December 2017, price approximately $20,000).

- **2020 Halving** (May): The peak occurred **12 months** after halving (April 2021, price approximately $64,000).

**Pattern Summary**: The bull market peak usually occurs within **12-18 months** after halving, and the time window is gradually shortening (possibly related to market maturity).

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### **2025 Bitcoin Peak Time Window Prediction**

1. **Basic Assumptions**:

The fourth halving is expected to be completed in April 2024. If historical patterns hold, the bull market peak could be between **April 2025 (12 months after halving) and October 2025 (18 months after halving)**.

2. **Key Correction Factors**:

- **Institutional Acceleration**: If Bitcoin spot ETFs massively attract investments in 2024 (e.g., BlackRock, Fidelity), it may shorten the cycle, bringing it forward to **Q2-Q3 2025 (April-September)**.

- **Macroeconomic Delay**: If the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle is delayed until the second half of 2025, liquidity release might push the peak to **Q4 2025 (October-December)**.

3. **Most Likely Time Window**:

- **July-October 2025** (15-18 months after halving), combining historical medians and institutional capital inflow rhythms.

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### **Potential Price Range**

- **Optimistic Scenario (Institutional + Macro Resonance)**:

If Bitcoin's market cap approaches 10% of gold (approximately $2 trillion), the corresponding price would be **$180,000-$250,000**.

- **Neutral Scenario (Cycle Repeats)**:

Referencing the 2021 increase (approximately 8 times after halving), estimating from the 2023 low of $16,000, the target is **$120,000-$150,000**.

- **Pessimistic Scenario (Black Swan Impact)**:

If global regulation tightens or a technological crisis erupts, the peak may be capped at **$60,000-$80,000**.

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### **Verification Signals and Risk Warnings**

1. **Peak Signal**:

- **Market Sentiment Extremely Greedy**: The Fear and Greed Index remains above 90, and social media discussions reach an all-time high.

- **On-chain Data Alerts**: Long-term holders (HODLers) begin transferring large amounts of tokens to exchanges, with the MVRV ratio exceeding 4.0.

2. **Risk Factors**:

- **Regulatory Shock**: The US or EU may introduce strict cryptocurrency tax or trading restrictions.

- **Technical Bottlenecks**: Bitcoin network congestion or Layer 2 solutions failing to scale in time, leading to user loss.

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### **Summary**

- **Most Likely Peak Month**: **September 2025** (17 months after halving), combining historical patterns and institutional processes.

- **Price Range**: **$120,000-$180,000**