#USConsumerConfidence

As Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board, notes:

“Consumers became somewhat less optimistic about the stock market in December: 52.9% expected stock prices to rise over the next year, down from a record 57.2% in November. Also, 25% of consumers expected stock prices to fall, up from 21.7%. The share of consumers expecting interest rates to rise over the next 12 months rose to 48.5%, but remained at a recent low. The share of those expecting rates to fall fell to 29.3%, down from recent months but still quite high.”

The share of consumers expecting a recession over the next 12 months has held steady near a record low. At the same time, consumers’ assessments of their family’s financial situation, both current and over the next six months, have worsened. (These indicators are not included in the calculation of the Consumer Sentiment Index®).

Average 12-month inflation expectations stabilized at 5.0% in December, the lowest level since March 2020.