January 24 Afternoon Views

1. Bitcoin, expected range 106500-103500, anticipated trend is to rise and then pull back;

2. Ethereum, expected range 3450-3300, anticipated trend is to rise and then pull back;

Today at 22:45 US PMI Manufacturing Data;

Today at 23:00 US January Inflation Actual Value; (Expected to have little impact. However, these two time points may cause short-term violent fluctuations.

Last night, the market experienced sharp fluctuations, with Bitcoin rising and falling multiple times within a 4000-point range,

The rise was due to Trump appointing Cynthia as the chair of the cryptocurrency research group (bullish), Trump expressing hope for the Fed to cut rates soon (bullish), and Trump mentioning at the Davos forum about making the US a cryptocurrency capital (bullish).

The decline was due to very strong psychological pressure at the 110,000 level, with some funds believing that without substantial positive news landing, Bitcoin could not break through 110,000; additionally, there is also a risk of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan today, so every time there is a rise, profit-taking will lead to selling; forming a sharp tug-of-war trend.

Today, the Bank of Japan's rate hike of 0.25% has been implemented, and the Nikkei Index/US stock index futures did not experience a significant decline, with both Bitcoin and Ethereum showing an upward trend after the rate hike.

It can be seen that last night's bullish news and today's rate hike bearish news have offset each other, and in the absence of more bearish news in the near future, Bitcoin and Ethereum can be viewed from a slightly bullish perspective, with every deep pullback being a potential buying opportunity, and Bitcoin long positions can be adjusted (because currently the main narrative is Trump frequently delivering positive news, and there could be sudden spikes at any time).

The risk is that US stocks have risen significantly recently, and a pullback is possible; if US stocks decline, it will drag down Bitcoin and Ethereum;

In terms of strategy —

High short and low long at the edges of the range.

The low long positions can be slightly adjusted to capture intraday fluctuations. $BTC $ETH