After the small New Year, I really feel tired. I don't know why relatives started visiting before the New Year this year. Is this called 'involution'?
The following was casually written this morning while sitting on the toilet, after watching Trump's crypto policies. It remains stable and positive, fulfilling commitments, but what is needed for an increase is surprises, not just (not only) fulfillment.
The following was really written casually while in the bathroom, for my reference after the New Year for a serious update.
It is possible to reach 150,000 by 2025, and there will be a healthy upward trend starting now. From now until the end of the year, it will be basically the same as when ETFs are approved, with favorable policies and good liquidity, remaining at a high level.
The healthy pullback position is directly at 100,000, 80,000-90,000; a black swan event could bring it down to 70,000, but afterwards there will be a major bull market in 2026 due to significant liquidity, so dollar-cost averaging into Bitcoin is definitely a good move.
Specifically, if you have 100 yuan in assets, you can go all in on cryptocurrency, with Bitcoin and altcoins at a 1:1 ratio: 40 yuan in Bitcoin spot, 20 yuan buying at 100,000, 10 yuan buying at 80,000-90,000, and 10 yuan buying at 70,000. Use the remaining 10 yuan for futures options trading.
For altcoins, 50 yuan each in ETH, SOL, and DOGE with a weekly dollar-cost averaging of 0.5 yuan for 20 weeks. The remaining 20 yuan can be allocated to LINK, SUI, XRP, PEPE, AVAE, and a couple of others not mentioned, possibly AI-related (AI is really a scam sector, and I feel bad saying I'm optimistic). Distribute based on affinity; if you think it's expensive, just wait.
Due to the triple lag of tariffs + expulsion + balance sheet reduction, there will definitely be a challenge in the capital markets in 2025. It is best to go all in during situations like circuit breakers (though this is unlikely).
Don't touch leverage, don't trade in waves, don't play contracts, don't short.
