Today’s lunch:

U.S. stocks were rising before and after the market yesterday, which shows that everyone has begun to plan for the interest rate cut cycle, and the interest rate cut cycle is increasingly expected by capital. The probability of interest rate cuts starting in March next year is now as high as 70%. , so the market has already reported that funds have begun to deploy expectations for interest rate cuts. However, the trend of the market yesterday has completely separated from the US stock market. It began to fall at 1 o'clock in the afternoon and continued to fall at the opening of the US market in the evening. This shows that funds are beginning to run away in advance in anticipation of the possible launch of ETFs on January 10. The closer the time is, the more risks will indeed intensify. Yesterday we also reminded that there are many thorns in the fish tail. Now let’s review the risks we have seen several times before. In fact, it was mentioned a long time ago that the first supply appeared at 44488. At this position, traders on the left obviously started to ship. , he doesn’t want to wait for the second and third time to accelerate, so this position is still a very cost-effective selling point. I think the second acceleration will be the wave of 40555-43000+, so in summary, the implementation of ETF is very likely to be the last acceleration, and the one most likely to pass is BlackRock. Then the decline you want will definitely come, but the time and magnitude cannot be determined now.

The new CEO of B AN has done enough. Mining three times a month. Can you bear this? He has locked up the big BNB holders. These three minings plus the recent increase in BNB have been at least 10% in the past two weeks. It can bring more than 30% profit to the position holders. It is said that there are three things that a new official should do when he takes office. These three things are indeed the most prosperous firewood that is burned at the most correct time.

I also saw a funny thing yesterday, saying that the big-pie ETF passed, and then came the two-pie ETF, and then SOL. The mood of retail investors has become so FOMO. Sorry, SOL has been recognized as a security by the SEC, and it will not pass. Therefore, I think there is not much room for SOL to rise in the short term. But its ecological value will still be picked up again in the bull market.

The second-tier network METIS of the legendary V God Old Mother platform has tripled in the past week, which has also attracted a lot of attention. Its ecology has also skyrocketed in a few days. Although the short-term risks are very high, it has begun to catch people's attention. , we can continue to pay attention to whether there is an opportunity for a callback.Currently, there are several currencies in the ecosystem that can only be purchased on the chain, such as NETT HUM, etc.

In terms of the market, yesterday's decline should have hit the 4H-level upward trend line and provided an effective support. Judging from today's market, if today's rebound cannot break through 43,000, it will continue to be a downward trend in the short term. It is still two-digit in the short term. In this case, firstly, if there is another second test at the 4H level to confirm the support rebound, then the bottom here will be very solid; secondly, if it falls directly below, it is bound to look for 40,000 points again. So the point of the game is near yesterday's bottom.

Let’s talk about two cakes. Why was I so beaten before? Yesterday, some friends even asked if SOL would exceed two cakes. In fact, this should have something to do with the liquidation of FTX. The value of the FTX liquidation account is 250 million US dollars. Almost all of the ETH has been liquidated, and it is liquidated first, so it has resisted selling pressure all the way. However, a large number of SOLs in the liquidation list have been pledged by market makers and have not been completely liquidated yet. SOL has been pulled so hard that as long as the debtors are repaid with the same amount of US dollars from liquidation, then the remaining profits are market making. I don’t know when they will throw it away, but we still have to be careful with this knife on our head.

Today’s panic and greed index: 73 (greed)

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