Bitcoin once again reached a historic high of around 110,000 on the 20th, but due to Trump's failure to release crypto policies as expected after taking office, it fell nearly 10,000 in the short term.
However, I believe the reason for the policy not being released is that he wants to accumulate at low prices. Trump seems to have understood the crypto world well, using his personal influence to issue NFTs and coins to earn billions, then using presidential power to accumulate at low prices. When the policy is suddenly released, it will surge and he will sell off, making his wealth multiply. At that time, many people might find themselves trapped. Digressing, what points do the bulls and bears need to pay attention to? Let's analyze from the liquidation map.
From the liquidation map, the bearish power is significantly greater than the bullish power. Currently, the concentrated liquidation points for shorts above are at 103,500, 105,000, and 106,300, with cumulative liquidation intensities of 241 million, 509 million, and 676 million USD, respectively. The concentrated liquidation range extends up to the previous high near 109,600, which has a cumulative liquidation intensity of 1.1 billion USD.
The point that needs special attention here is actually the line of 105,800-106,300, as this is both a resistance range and a concentrated liquidation point, as well as near the 0.618 of this decline. If there is a false break here, it might be a good entry point for short-term shorts. However, if it breaks and holds above this line, the downward trend is likely to end. It is recommended to analyze in conjunction with trading volume, especially noting that the trading volume has been shrinking recently but suddenly increased. This increases the probability of a false break.
From the map, the concentrated liquidation points for bulls are at 100,000 and 99,300, with cumulative liquidation intensities of 240 million and 400 million USD respectively. The concentrated liquidation area for bulls extends to around 97,300, which has a cumulative liquidation intensity of nearly 530 million USD.
Here, bulls need to pay attention to the point near 99,200-98,500, which is the original resistance area and also a major liquidation range for bulls. If a pin bar is formed at this position, it could be a small position to try going long. However, if a lower low is formed in this area, bulls should be cautious. The area around 96,950 is the 0.618 of this rise. If it breaks down without a reversal, the upward trend might be broken.
In summary, although a new high was quickly pulled back and volume decreased, since Trump's crypto policy has not yet been released, we still have reasons to remain bullish. However, it may take time until Trump has accumulated enough bottom chips before starting to push up, and that moment may be the last surge of this bull market.