Trump's return: What to expect from the impact on markets, geopolitics, and cryptocurrencies?
Tomorrow, January 20, Donald Trump will assume the presidency of the United States again, and with this event, multiple questions arise about how global markets, cryptocurrencies, and the economy, both local and international, could react. It is not a minor event, and its influence could generate domino effects ranging from changes in fiscal policy to geopolitical tensions that would affect all corners of the world, including our country, Mexico.
Today I want to share some reflections and possible scenarios, based on historical patterns and what we have observed in recent years.
1. Volatility in global markets: A rally or a correction?
Trump's return could generate short-term uncertainty in traditional markets such as stock exchanges. During his first term, we saw spikes in volatility driven by his aggressive trade policies, especially with China, and his focus on deregulating certain economic sectors.
What could happen this time?
Bullish scenario: If Trump announces tax cuts or incentives for companies, we could see an initial rally on Wall Street. This would benefit sectors such as energy, industrial, and technology.
Bearish scenario: If his focus turns towards extreme protectionism, such as new tariffs or trade restrictions, markets could react with declines due to fears of a global economic slowdown.
In any case, volatility is practically guaranteed, which could also spill over to markets like cryptocurrencies.
2. Impact on the crypto market: An opportunity or a challenge?
The cryptocurrency market, highly sensitive to macroeconomic events, could experience interesting movements with Trump's return.
Possible bullish momentum:
If U.S. monetary policy remains expansive (low interest rates or economic stimulus), we could see a greater influx of capital into the crypto market as a store of value.
The narrative of Bitcoin as 'digital gold' could strengthen, especially if there is uncertainty in traditional markets.
Altcoins related to innovative technologies, such as AI or DeFi, could also benefit.
Possible downward pressure:
However, if Trump adopts a stricter regulatory stance towards cryptocurrencies (something he has mentioned in the past), we could see a correction in the market. Regulatory uncertainty has always been a brake on the sector's growth.
In this scenario, diversification and risk management will be crucial to protect your investments.
3. Geopolitics: Renewed tensions or strategic collaboration?
During his first term, Trump was known for his direct and often polarizing approach to geopolitics. This could influence key markets:
China and Asian markets: If he reignites the trade war with China, we could see impacts on global supply chains, affecting everything from technology to commodities. This could slow global economic growth.
Relations with Mexico: For our country, trade with the U.S. is essential. Any renegotiation of the USMCA or strict immigration policies could create economic and social instability.
Europe and cryptocurrencies: If tensions between the U.S. and Europe increase, investors are likely to seek refuge in decentralized assets like cryptocurrencies.
4. Implications for Mexico and local investors
In Mexico, we must be attentive to how Trump's policies could influence key sectors:
The Mexican peso: Historically, the peso has reacted volatilely to Trump's statements and policies. We could see downward pressures if trade or political tensions escalate.
Remittances: Mexico receives billions of dollars in remittances from the U.S. Any change in immigration policy could impact this flow, directly affecting our economy.
Investments in cryptocurrencies: In times of uncertainty, digital assets tend to become more attractive. If the peso weakens, we could see an increase in interest in Bitcoin and other cryptos as investment alternatives.
What can we do as investors?
1. Stay calm: Volatility can be an opportunity if you have a clear plan.
2. Diversify: Do not put all your resources in a single asset or market. Balance between cryptos, stocks, and safe assets like CETES.
3. Do your own research: Do not make decisions based solely on media noise. Analyze the fundamentals of each asset.
4. Keep learning: Knowledge is your best tool to navigate these uncertain times.
Conclusion: Beyond the headlines
Trump's return brings a new wave of uncertainty, but also opportunities. Trading and investing are not about guessing what will happen, but about preparing for any scenario.
Remember that the market will always test your patience and your strategy. So stay focused, manage your risks, and keep learning. Because, in the end, success does not depend on who is in the presidency, but on how you face the changes that the market brings.
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