Will there be a major drop before Trump's inauguration?
The direction of the market in the coming days will largely depend on the period surrounding Trump's inauguration. Currently, the macroeconomic situation has improved. At present, the probability of a rate cut in March has risen to 30%, the probability for May is 55%, and the cumulative probability for a rate cut in June has reached 94% (meaning there is a 94% chance of at least one rate cut occurring between January and June).
Next week, there is an important event, namely that Japan may announce an interest rate hike on January 24. If the rate hike is confirmed, it might bring a shock to the market.
Therefore, the key time window for potential price increases might be between the 15th and 20th. If the prices of various cryptocurrencies rise and hit resistance zones, then it may be wise to consider reducing some positions.
Of course, if data changes in the future and the macroeconomic situation shifts, we will naturally need to adjust our investment strategy accordingly. Currently, I still hold most of my long positions.
This market is still full of fast money-making opportunities, but it requires us to conduct in-depth research and continuously improve our understanding, clarifying the areas in which we have the ability to maintain profitability.
After entering the market, one must estimate when to exit to remain undefeated.
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