#特朗普上任前风向分析

Before Trump's inauguration, the US stock market exhibited certain fluctuations and uncertainties, mainly influenced by the following aspects:

Policy Expectations Impact

- Trade Policy: Trump repeatedly stated during his campaign and after winning that he would impose punitive tariffs on countries like Mexico and Canada, and he might declare a national economic emergency to implement new tariff plans. This raised market concerns about escalating trade friction, which could lead to increased costs and diminished profits for US companies reliant on international trade, thereby putting pressure on relevant stocks.

- Regulatory Policy: Trump intends to seek deregulation, which could significantly impact industries such as finance and energy. For example, the banking sector might gain more business expansion opportunities due to loosened regulations, thereby improving the performance of bank stocks.

- Immigration Policy: Trump plans to carry out large-scale deportations, which may exacerbate labor market tensions, especially in low-skilled job positions, thus driving up wages and increasing companies' labor costs, negatively impacting corporate profits and the stock market.

Changes in Economic Situation

- Inflation Expectations: Federal Reserve officials expressed concerns about inflation being higher than expected and the potential inflationary impact of Trump's policies post-inauguration, which significantly slowed the market's expectations for interest rate cuts by the Fed. Elevated interest rates would increase companies' financing costs, reduce profitability, and lower investment returns, putting certain pressure on stock market valuations.

- Economic Growth Outlook: Although the US economic fundamentals remain robust, the market anticipates a slowdown in US economic growth. Some investors have started to worry about the adverse effects of slowing economic growth on corporate profit growth, leading to adjustments in their investment portfolios, which caused stock market fluctuations.

Investor Sentiment and Capital Flows

- Portfolio Adjustment: Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett suggested that investors adjust their portfolios before Trump's inauguration day to buy Chinese, European stocks, US Treasury bonds, and gold. This reflects some investors' concerns about the US stock market outlook, prompting them to shift funds to other asset classes or markets.