Market Trend Analysis for the First Half of 2025:
A Brief Discussion on the First Half of 2025:
First, the general scenario, a rough overview of the market trend in 2025.
In late January this year, the approval of Ethereum staking ETFs is likely to lead to a surge, which may last for 2-3 weeks. Altcoins may also experience a rebound (still, some altcoins might significantly rise, so it's important to pay attention to what concepts are being speculated on at that time). Then, starting in March, the market will continue to fluctuate up and down, with both bulls and bears suffering. Bitcoin will oscillate around a hundred thousand. Each time Bitcoin dips, altcoins will likely take a hit first. This situation may persist until May-June, after which a clearer direction might emerge.
At the same time, the first half of 2025 will also be a period filled with many opportunities. After the arrival of the new administration, there may be a brief small peak, likely around the time of Trump's inauguration, which is next Monday. Caution is advised. However, in the first and second quarters of this year, following the script mentioned earlier, there is a strong possibility that the new administration will introduce various favorable policies or news to further stimulate the market!
Now, let's talk about the significant impact of interest rate cuts:
Currently, the probability of a rate cut in March has returned to 30%, the probability for May is 55%, and for June it is 94%. Next week, there is also an important event concerning Japan's interest rate hike (January 24). If confirmed, it will negatively impact the market.
Therefore, the key time frame for potential upward movements might be around the 20th, plus or minus four days. If various cryptocurrencies surge upward and reach resistance zones, it might be worth considering clearing most of the positions.
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