There is always a question I've asked myself... When is the best time to buy or sell dollars during the year (in this case with respect to the Peruvian SOL)?
To answer this question, I was aware that I must take into account some things if I want to analyze its behavior over time.
1. Consider whether prices have seasonality between the months over the last 5 years.
2. Take into account relevant events both internal and external that influence the currency market. (Pandemic, new FTAs, natural disasters, etc.)
3. Take into account the regulatory function of the BCRP in the exchange rate.
Taking all of the above into account, I downloaded the daily exchange rate from 2020 to 2024.
This gave me enough data to create a double-entry table between Months and Years respectively; where each month shows the average price.
We organized the information and for better visualization, we placed the data on a color scale to quickly identify the lowest exchange rate (more red) to the highest (more green) with respect to its own year.
We can say that:
1. The variation of the exchange rate throughout the year is not much thanks to the work of the BCRP, but since its role is to adjust in the monetary market, we can suspect its influence on some abrupt variations.
2. It can be observed that during the years 2020 and 2021, the exchange rate was lower, which could be explained by the global situation in those years.
3. If we had to choose a month to buy Dollars with PEN, we could choose the first months and to sell from October to December.
This analysis can be deepened, taking into account the correlation between years, the standard deviation among other tools.
Did you like this first analysis? Would you like it to be deeper? What suggestions do you have for me?
Thank you for reading to the end.
I await your comments... let them be.