Hello everyone! This is Nastya and TCP-MARKET, where we talk about finance, cryptocurrencies, and the future of global markets. Today we will discuss one of the hottest topics: the trade war between the US and China and its impact on the dollar, yuan, and the prospects of the global economy.
A new round of trade war
On January 20, 2025, Donald Trump's inauguration will take place, and from that moment we can expect the start of the second act of the global economic confrontation between the US and China. This event will trigger new decisions that will affect trade, currencies, and crypto markets.
Let me briefly remind you that the trade war is not just tariffs and accusations, but a larger geopolitical game. The US accused China of manipulating the yuan's exchange rate, stealing technology, and unfair competition. Now we see that the conflict is not over, but is only taking new forms.
Amidst this, here's an interesting news: China has achieved a record trade surplus of $992 billion. This is a new record that indicates a serious increase in exports. It would seem that the yuan should strengthen, but instead, it has weakened. Why?
The yuan and China's strategy
For China, a weak yuan is a tool that allows it to maintain the competitiveness of its exports. A strong currency for an exporting country is a risk of declining sales abroad, and for China, just like for Russia, exports are a vital source of income.
What will happen in 2025?
China factors:
Record exports have already been achieved.
New economic stimulus programs have been launched.
Possible reduction of rates and banking regulations to support businesses.
Accelerating economic growth remains a key goal.
US factors:
The trade deficit continues to grow.
The risks of an internal crisis are high.
Tariffs on Chinese goods are likely to be increased.
Interest rates will remain higher than in China, which will support the dollar.
Trump will focus on the domestic economy, but pressure on China will intensify.
Who will win?
If the US imposes new tariffs and the yuan continues to weaken, Chinese goods may remain competitive, but this will create an imbalance in global markets. In 2025, we will likely see the following picture:
1. The dollar is likely to strengthen against the yuan.
2. The ruble will weaken against the dollar more than against the yuan.
3. The trade war will not have a catastrophic impact on Russia, but will affect our economy through indirect factors.
4. The US and China will continue to fight for dominance, but there will be no definitive victory.
The role of cryptocurrencies
Against this backdrop, cryptocurrencies are becoming an increasingly attractive tool for capital preservation. Their decentralized nature allows bypassing sanctions, preserving assets, and efficiently conducting cross-border payments.
This is especially relevant for the TCPct coin from TCP-MARKET, which showed confident growth at the beginning of the year. Against the backdrop of overall uncertainty, TCPct has become an interesting asset for those seeking stability in a world dominated by trade wars and currency manipulations.
Conclusion
2025 will be a year of global changes, but also of opportunities.
The dollar will strengthen, but with it will come the risks of a crisis.
The yuan will weaken, creating new conditions for international trade.
Cryptocurrencies will continue to grow, and TCP-MARKET with its coin TCPct is a vivid example of how decentralized finance is becoming part of a new reality.
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