Crypto飞哥
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Although I believe this round of the bull market is approaching its end, it is very likely to conclude in the first quarter of 2025 (at most by April, and May is basically unlikely to continue). Altcoins may only have a maximum potential increase of 2-3 times in the later stages. However, the market has recently experienced a month-long retracement, and many people not only lost all their previous floating profits but also kept increasing their positions during multiple dips to 9.2K, resulting in greater losses, gradually losing confidence, and even starting to voice that 'the bull market has ended.' I do not agree with this. If a four-year bull market can end so easily, what is the difference from the Myanmar A market?
In short, the key is to achieve unity of knowledge and action, to stick to operations that you recognize and are confident in, without fear or regret. Liquidating now or slightly earlier can reduce pressure during the retracement, but you must also bear the risk of missing out when the market rises in the future (it is impossible to perfectly grasp the fluctuations). Instead of chasing highs when the market starts in the later stages, it is better to hold quality coins at relatively low price levels now.
Moreover, although many topping-out indicators have already deformed, they still have certain reference value and can be adjusted appropriately in conjunction with the historical timing and patterns of past bull markets. It is understood that someone has compiled a list of 30 topping-out indicators, and currently, none of the indicators are in place (see Figure 1). I personally estimate that when about 30% of these indicators are met, the bull market will also be nearing its end; it is almost unrealistic for all to be in place.
Figure 2 shows parameters based on a weighted calculation of 7-8 core topping-out indicators, clearly indicating that the market is already in the later stage but has not yet reached the peak. Therefore, I still say: independently judge the market, formulate a clear trading plan, and that is the key to achieving investment returns. In the upcoming end phase of the bull market, it is essential to remain calm, take profits when available, and avoid being too attached to the battle.
In short, the key is to achieve unity of knowledge and action, to stick to operations that you recognize and are confident in, without fear or regret. Liquidating now or slightly earlier can reduce pressure during the retracement, but you must also bear the risk of missing out when the market rises in the future (it is impossible to perfectly grasp the fluctuations). Instead of chasing highs when the market starts in the later stages, it is better to hold quality coins at relatively low price levels now.
Moreover, although many topping-out indicators have already deformed, they still have certain reference value and can be adjusted appropriately in conjunction with the historical timing and patterns of past bull markets. It is understood that someone has compiled a list of 30 topping-out indicators, and currently, none of the indicators are in place (see Figure 1). I personally estimate that when about 30% of these indicators are met, the bull market will also be nearing its end; it is almost unrealistic for all to be in place.
Figure 2 shows parameters based on a weighted calculation of 7-8 core topping-out indicators, clearly indicating that the market is already in the later stage but has not yet reached the peak. Therefore, I still say: independently judge the market, formulate a clear trading plan, and that is the key to achieving investment returns. In the upcoming end phase of the bull market, it is essential to remain calm, take profits when available, and avoid being too attached to the battle.
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content. See T&Cs.
