Market Analysis: Current Situation and Forecast
Colleagues, good day! 🕒 Let me remind you, be careful with short positions. A local reversal structure is forming on 1D, indicating a continuation of the trend.
🔹 Key points:
1️⃣ Fundamentals play an important role in the current situation.
2️⃣ Many traders see the "Head and Shoulders" pattern and try to sell with the aim of buying back at the levels of $76,080 - $80,200. However, such actions can be risky.
🔹 What's happening on the market:
- A large number of traders are shorting with leverage, but as the last 15 minutes have shown, this can lead to significant losses.
- From the volume map it is clear that all the walls at the top have been removed - the path for movement upward is clear.
- Those who wanted to sell have already sold and are waiting for a lower price. However, this plays into the hands of the market maker, who uses these expectations to his advantage.
🔹 Important dates:
- January 14th is the full moon. As I have mentioned many times, during the full moon the market often moves sideways or starts to move upward.
- January 16-17 - probable achievement of the $100,000 target, which intersects with our downward trend.
🔹 What I do:
- opened several shorts, expecting downward pressure, and partially closed most of them and transferred them to BU.
- On the daily timeframe, I marked key points, including the high volatility window zone in the new structure. After Trump's inauguration.
🔹 Long-term goals:
Based on the current structure:
- Next goal: $100,000.
- Long-term target: $132,580 (with levels **$119,000 – $122,000**).
📊 Bottom line: We are moving within a bear trap that could result in a strong move higher. It is important to remain cautious, analyze the market and remember the key cycles. Good luck! 🚀