I originally thought that once the pancake stood at 100,000, we could start the hype before Trump took office, but unexpectedly, it returned to square one.

Last night's sharp decline was mainly due to the release of two important economic data from the United States that exceeded expectations:

First, the JOLTs job openings for November, which showed strong demand from businesses for hiring;

Second, the ISM services index for December rebounded significantly, indicating future inflation pressure.

These two signals led the market to reassess the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve—traders are no longer certain that there will be rate cuts before July. According to the latest predictions from CME, the probability of a rate cut in January has dropped to 4.8%, and those for March and May have also decreased to 39% and 51%, respectively. Real rate cuts may have to wait until after June, and it is expected that there will only be 1-2 cuts throughout the year.

This directly hit the market's expectations for loose monetary policy, leading to a collective correction in the U.S. stock and cryptocurrency markets. In particular, Bloomberg predicts that Friday's non-farm payroll data will far exceed expectations (reaching 260,000, instead of the expected 163,000), and this expectation further exacerbated market concerns. Last night's decline can be seen as a premature reaction to these adverse factors.

The changes in these economic data and the adjusted expectations for interest rate cuts are the main reasons for the sharp decline in the market last night. Keep a positive mindset; a big bull market will definitely come.

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