Recently, I've seen many discussions about the delay of the 'Shanzhai Season', and everyone seems quite confused. What exactly counts as the Shanzhai Season? I would like to share my thoughts on this.
First of all, I'm not quite sure how everyone understands 'Shanzhai Season'.
From September 2023 to March 2024, does this wave count as the Shanzhai Season? BTC rose from 25,000 to 71,000, nearly tripling.
Does this wave from early August to the end of December count as the Shanzhai Season? BTC rose from 50,000 to 108,000, doubling.
Why was the Shanzhai in March 2024 so strong? Because BTC's main upward trend had just started, and before that, the market had been bearish for a year.
That's why the secondary market had black horses like SEI, TIA, WLD, OM, and the inscription series, all rising more than tenfold, primarily focusing on the new: new coins and new narratives.
Since August, this wave is different. Firstly, the funding has become more differentiated, and BTC's increase has been relatively small.
Therefore, there haven't been as many black horses emerging in the Shanzhai market, only SUI, XRP, PUNT, ACT, and some old DeFi performing a few times, but can we really call this a Shanzhai market?
From a macro perspective, various funds are flowing into BTC through compliant channels, which is a future trend. Therefore, these newly entered institutions generally won't touch altcoins unless they are involved in specific projects. As a result, the altcoin market hasn't had much fresh blood flowing in; it is still mainly operated by retail investors and speculative funds within the circle.
I believe that the so-called 'Shanzhai Season' now is not necessarily a fixed point in time, but rather a phase in the market. We cannot always use the markets of 2017 and 2021 to understand the current and future altcoin markets. Future altcoin trends might resemble those in March or December 2024, where there could be some black horse projects, but the overall size and explosive strength of the market still depend on BTC's price increase.
If BTC drops to around 70,000, consolidates for half a year, and then rises to 180,000, I believe the altcoin market will replicate the trend from March 2024, with more black horse projects emerging, allowing retail investors to earn more.
So, what exactly counts as the 'Shanzhai Season' is not that important; the key is how many opportunities you can seize in each wave of the market and how much profit you can make.
