Based on the provided chart (15-minute cycle of DOT price movement), here is the technical analysis of the probability of DOT hitting bottom $:
1. Candlestick Patterns and Price Trends
The current price is around 6.865 (closing price), with a certain rebound occurring in the short term.
A recent low (potential support) formed near 6.810, and the price subsequently rebounded, but the rebound strength was limited, indicating cautious buying support below.
The candlestick overall failed to break through the key resistance moving average (EMA55), indicating that the current price is still in a relatively weak adjustment phase.
2. Moving Average (EMA) Analysis
Short-term moving averages (EMA5, EMA10): EMA5 (6.861) and EMA10 (6.868) are close to flat, indicating a balanced short-term bullish and bearish force.
If the price falls below EMA5, it may test the 6.810 support again in the short term.
Mid-term moving averages (EMA21, EMA30): EMA21 (6.887) and EMA30 (6.903) constitute short-term resistance, and the price must effectively break through to confirm the continuation of the rebound.
Long-term moving average (EMA55): EMA55 (6.940) is an important resistance level; the price needs to break through this point to change the current weak structure.
3. RSI Indicator Analysis
RSI (6, 14, 24) values: RSI6 = 47.857 (short-term, close to neutral zone)
RSI14 = 43.704 (mid-term, weak bearish)
RSI24 = 42.597 (long-term, weak)
Analysis: RSI6 shows an increase in short-term buying pressure, but it has not entered the overbought zone, limiting the rebound strength.
RSI14 and 24 are still below 50, indicating a weak medium to long-term trend, with bears in control.
4. Volume (Vol) Analysis
The trading volume shows no significant expansion during the rebound, indicating insufficient bullish confidence.
Volume increased during the decline, showing that bearish forces are more active.
5. Support and Resistance Analysis
Support level: 6.810 is the recent low support, and if it breaks below this level, it may further explore the 6.750 area.
Resistance levels: short-term resistance is EMA21 (6.887) and EMA30 (6.903).
The key mid-term resistance is EMA55 (6.940), and a valid breakthrough is needed to confirm the rebound trend.
6. Summary and Bottom Probability Analysis
Probability of a short-term bottom:
6.810 serves as an important support level, with a higher probability of hitting bottom in the short term, especially before the price effectively falls below this point.
RSI6 is close to 50, showing a certain rebound space in the short term.
Conditions for confirming a bottom:
The price needs to effectively stabilize above 6.810 and break through EMA30 and EMA55.
RSI14 and 24 need to break above 50, while trading volume must significantly increase.
Downside risk:
If it falls below 6.810, it may further explore the 6.750 or even 6.700 area.
Suggested actions (for reference only):
Conservative strategy: Wait for the price to break and stabilize above EMA55 (6.940) before considering entry.
Aggressive strategy: If the price approaches 6.810, a light position can be attempted, with a stop loss set below 6.780.
Pay attention to changes in volume and RSI: volume needs to expand in sync, and RSI must break above 50 to confirm enhanced bullish strength.
For further analysis, feel free to communicate at any time!
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