Bull, bear, or bull and horse? How do you define bull and bear?
A little introduction: How do you view this round of rise? Bull, bear, or bull and horse? If you think it is a bull, and fish, shrimp, and crabs fall sharply by 40-60% during the bull market, do you still think it is a bull?
(1) How do you define bull and bear?
Some people say that a rise of 100%-300% or more is a bull, and a sharp drop of 30% is a bear? This is a paradox. Many times, the bull you define also has a big drop of more than 30%, so there will be a bull at one time and a bear at another time. You can't tell the difference, and you are confused in the end.
Some people say that making money is a bull, and losing money is a bear? This is more subjective. Many people lose money at the end of the bull market.
Some people say that there are no bulls and bears, only bulls and horses! Fish, shrimp, and crabs are bulls and horses, and we are bulls and horses! Fish, shrimp, and crabs have only the fate of working for the Bull Demon King! We have only the fate of working for the blockchain continent.
(2) How do I define bull and bear cycles using quantitative methods?
The wave theory believes that rising waves such as waves 1, 3, 5, and b are bulls; and corrective waves such as waves 2, 4, a, and c are bears.
This division is very objective, but it is not accepted by most people. Because if it is divided in this way, the sustainability of bull and bear cycles is not strong, and there will often be situations where "bull is sometimes bullish, bear is sometimes bearish, and you can't tell the difference, and you are confused in the end."
I personally think that the bull and bear cycles can be divided into short bull, short bear, medium bull, medium bear, long bull, and long bear according to the duration:
Short bull and short bear last from 10 days to 2 months.
Medium bull and medium bear last from 3 months to 6 months.
Long bull and long bear last more than 7 months.
Based on many years of experience and combined with the sustainability of bull and bear cycles, I think the bull and bear cycles should be defined as follows:
The time span of wave 1-wave 2-wave 3 is collectively called the bull (bull body).
The 4th wave is called the bear of a lower cycle (in the 4th wave of the Bull Demon King or the concubine, the decline of fish, shrimp and crabs can usually reach 40%-70%, which is a very large decline, so it is not an exaggeration to call it a bear)
The 5th wave is called the bull (the end of the bull)
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