#市场反弹迹象

1. The market anticipates the 'Santa Claus Rally': Although the market expects a 'Santa Claus Rally', Bitcoin has recently declined due to reduced buying activity from large investors. However, analyst Justin Bennett points out that the current bullish pattern of BTC is similar to previous surges, predicting that Bitcoin may break through $168,500 based on historical trends.

2. Institutional investment and ETF capital inflows: On the institutional side, MicroStrategy remains bullish on Bitcoin, increasing its holdings by 5,262 BTC for $561 million, marking the company's seventh consecutive week of purchases. Additionally, the approval of Bitcoin ETFs is pushing it towards becoming a mature global asset, with institutional capital entering the market at an accelerated pace.

3. Ongoing evolution of market structure: Data shows that meme coins are leading the market, while VC-backed tokens are generally under pressure, and the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) has become a new market focus, significantly increasing trading volume. The market structure continues to evolve, with high FDV and low circulation tokens performing poorly and institutional demand for Bitcoin allocation rising.

4. DEX becomes the main venue for early price discovery of tokens: Data indicates that the yields of existing tokens are actually higher than those of newly listed projects, reflecting an important shift in the crypto market in 2024: DEX has become the primary venue for early price discovery of tokens.

5. Bitcoin’s store of value function and competition among public chain ecosystems: Looking ahead to 2025, as infrastructure improves and regulations become clearer, the crypto asset market will enter a new phase. Bitcoin's store of value function, competition among public chain ecosystems, and innovative applications such as DEX and NFTs may become new growth drivers for the market.

6. Weakening dollar index and the rise of Bitcoin's dominance: At the beginning of 2024, inflation significantly declines, largely due to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. This downward trend, combined with a slight economic slowdown, indicates that the dollar index may weaken in 2024, potentially creating favorable conditions for cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin has an inverse relationship with the dollar index, suggesting that a positive economic environment with low inflation and a weak dollar is beneficial for the cryptocurrency market in 2024.

In summary, the recent rebound signs in the cryptocurrency market indicate that the market is anticipating a positive shift, particularly in areas such as institutional investment, ETF capital inflows, the evolution of market structure, and Bitcoin's store of value function.