[Foreword]

At first, people thought this was just an ordinary pullback until Bitcoin fell below 90,000, 80,000, 60,000, 30,000, 10,000...

Ten years later, when the child asks: 'Dad, did Bitcoin really reach 100,000 dollars?'

To you, who are working hard on the construction site: 'Yes, child, although Bitcoin is only 10,000 dollars now, Dad really bought Bitcoin for 100,000 dollars.'

Everyone knows that Bitcoin is a virtual cryptocurrency proposed by Satoshi Nakamoto in 2008, not controlled by traditional financial institutions such as governments or banks. Its issuance and trading rely on the existence of the internet, allowing transactions anywhere in the world. It also has value storage.

[The Story of the Drop from 108329]

Historically, Bitcoin has experienced many legendary fluctuations.

From when 10,000 Bitcoins were used to purchase a pizza, confirming Bitcoin's tradability, Bitcoin officially began its ups and downs but gradually gained momentum, culminating in a breakthrough of $108329 on December 17, 2024, reaching an all-time high.

Behind the rise, in addition to its inherent market value, there are certainly some motivated individuals pushing it, including, but not limited to, consortiums, institutions, and even the United Kingdom, all participating in it, but today I don't want to discuss this.

What I want to say is about this major drop after reaching the peak of 108329. Has the bull market peaked? Can it break new highs in the future? What is the reason for this drop?

Ultimately, in my view, there are two points: fundamentally hitting Bitcoin's world value, which is the greatest extent of impact on its existence value, leading to this round of rapid decline.

1: The Federal Reserve has released the latest signals. Powell's speech indicates that the Federal Reserve undoubtedly holds Bitcoin. Regardless of whether there are behind-the-scenes manipulators controlling this speech, just looking at this news, it represents a significant blow to Bitcoin. It somewhat denies the meaning of its existence.

2: Breakthroughs in quantum chip technology. Everyone knows that the fundamental significance of Bitcoin is that it is an electronic currency, a virtual currency, a relatively secure asset based on blockchain technology in a network form. Due to technological limitations, the quantity is limited. However, breakthroughs in quantum chips could lead to the possibility of easier Bitcoin mining and make blockchain security technology less secure. Simply put, what previously took ten years to decode your 10-digit wallet password may now take only one year, or even half a year.

Thus, this is the fundamental reason why Bitcoin fell sharply.

Only some are still immersed in and fantasizing about the dream of a bull market.

[What to do in the future]

First of all, it cannot be denied that breakthroughs in quantum chip technology will inevitably lead to a decline in Bitcoin's market value. However, there is no need to worry too much; the technology will not be applied in this area so quickly in the short term, meaning this news will have an impact, but it won't last long; it will pass after a wave.

Moreover, although the Federal Reserve has announced that Bitcoin is no longer within its holding range, everyone knows that the 'understanding king' expressed a desire to replace Powell after being confirmed elected. The 'understanding king' and the consortium behind him are supporters of Bitcoin, not just historically, but at least currently. They have not yet achieved some of their goals.

Moreover, since the 'understanding king' has not officially moved into the White House, some favorable policies regarding virtual currencies are only verbal and have not been officially implemented. When he moves into the White House on January 20, 2025, and announces a series of favorable measures, I believe Bitcoin will have at least one more opportunity to soar.

Therefore, the future is still promising, but don't hold too much hope; the rise is only to achieve certain goals of the big players, and what we can do is recognize the reality, follow the major trends, and pick up some small gains, which is the best result.

[12.23 Bitcoin Market Analysis and Operations]

In the past two days of market fluctuations, everyone should be well aware of it, and it has basically been observed. Since December 20th, after the big drop near 92327, the overall market has been in a process of repair and adjustment over the weekend; the short-term bullish momentum still exists, at least it hasn't continued to fall during the weekend.

Looking at the weekly chart, we see a long shadow bearish candle, and the closing price has fallen below the moving average support for the first time in three months. From this perspective, the larger bearish trend has not yet finished. However, there is also support at the short-term bottom, and the bullish trend still exists; it's just that the bottom space has not yet completed.

Weekly trading advice: This week, regardless of whether Bitcoin first rises then falls or falls directly, the bottom still needs to go through at least one more low point; the position at 92327 is definitely not the bottom. The support currently visible is in the range of 90500-88500, which is also the current bullish trend support. It is recommended to consider entering long positions during a pullback into this range this week, or wait for the week to first rise to 99000-101000 to consider shorting.

Daily trading advice: Consider entering light shorts near 96500-97000, with small stop losses looking to exit in batches at 95000-93500.

For long positions, consider entering light longs near 93500, with a stop loss at 92800, targeting 94500-95500.

[12.23 Ethereum Market Analysis and Operations]

Similar to Bitcoin, Ethereum also closed with a large bearish candle, but the difference is that the drop in Ethereum appears to be somewhat larger. The overall weekly level has basically penetrated half of the market. After last week’s major drop, the space at the top has also opened up. Therefore, this week, it is more likely that Ethereum will first drop and then rise, or it could be said that it is more inclined to warm up after a pullback.

Looking at the short term, the daily chart shows a downward trend along the moving average, and the price is currently hovering near the 60-day moving average, adjusting sideways. Currently, before the price effectively breaks and stabilizes above 3400 on the daily chart, it is biased towards a bearish run. The only thing to note is that the short-term hourly and four-hour charts show signs of bottoming, and the daytime may warm up first.

Weekly trading advice: Near 3030-2930, you can consider entering long positions. Pay attention to the resistance range of 3500-3600 this week.

Daily trading advice: Near the short-term resistance of 3380-3420, consider entering light short positions, with small stop losses and looking to exit in batches at 3280-3180.

At the bottom 3160-3120, you can try to enter long positions. If unexpected losses occur, continue to enter long positions at 3040-3010.

[Conclusion from the King of Coins]

The market is not a safe harbor, but a surfing ground; either you bravely move forward or hesitate. Since you've chosen to move forward, don't just settle for the status quo. Investing in the future is something we cannot predict; we can only focus on taking every step well. What will happen will happen, regardless of your anxiety about it. Move forward, look ahead, and life operations are that simple.