"Uncertainty" is the norm in speculative trading

1. Different Understandings of "Uncertainty"

Many people are aware that there is uncertainty in trading, but their understanding of this concept varies. I simply categorize it into four types:

Some believe that the market has secrets that can determine trends, such as exclusive methods, various theories, market intuition, technical analysis, etc.

Some think that personal ability can determine trends, relying on analyses from authoritative figures or operations of futures stars.

Some believe they can roughly judge a direction through effort, so they pay attention to authoritative reports and expert opinions.

Others think that trends are completely uncertain and cannot be predicted, as market prices already incorporate all information.

Which one of these understandings do you belong to?

2. Different Understandings, Different Trading Paths

If you believe in having secrets, you may go in search of the "holy grail," which can easily lead to deception, as there will always be someone using false methods to tempt you.

If you rely on those who have made a lot of money, you might blindly follow them, lacking independent thought, which is very dangerous in leveraged trading.

If you think you can judge a rough direction, you might still be studying how to predict more accurately, but this makes it difficult to establish your own trading system.

If you believe that trends are completely uncertain, you will focus on coping with various possibilities, which is key to building a trading system.

3. The Core of a Trading System

Why are some people unable to establish a trading system? Because they feel that the future direction can be roughly determined, they put all their energy into prediction rather than establishing a system to cope with uncertainty.

But true experts understand that future prices cannot be controlled; all information has already been reflected in market prices. They focus on managing future uncertainties, believing that "trend is king." They know that only by establishing a trading system can they better respond to market changes.

Therefore, to truly embark on a systematic trading journey, you must recognize the uncertainty of trends and focus on building your own trading system. Only then can you go further in speculative trading.

The core of winning in a bull market is actually leveraging lightly and buying spot products at half price.