The current situation is not optimistic, and everyone is advised to manage their hands well. Compared to the last quantum panic, this time Old Bao's remarks represent a policy adjustment, which will have a longer-term impact. It is still recommended to take a break, as large holders are slowly offloading; remember not to blindly think that the market is ready to warm up!!!
Now is not the time to bottom out, now is not the time to bottom out, now is not the time to bottom out, now is not the time to bottom out. Important things must be said three times. $BTC $ETH #美联储放鹰
BTC Market Analysis
1. **Precise prediction of pullbacks, clear profit-taking strategy**
Today's Bitcoin price once fell to around 98,000 yuan, and we had previously predicted this position accurately. The current operational suggestion is to take profits in batches. **101,300 yuan** is a minor resistance level, and it may be considered to reduce positions; **103,000 yuan** is a key resistance level, and if broken, exiting can be considered.
2. **Breakthrough at 103,000 yuan, target price may further rise**
If the Bitcoin price successfully breaks through 103,000 yuan and stabilizes at the 1-hour level, we can see higher price targets, with potential short-term breakthroughs to 106,000 yuan, 108,500 yuan, or even higher, above 110,000.
3. **Break below 97,000 yuan, further opening of pullback space**
Conversely, if the BTC price falls below 97,000 yuan at the 1-hour level, we may see cheaper chips, with a pullback testing the range of 94,000—92,000 yuan, and investors can prepare for corresponding actions.
4. **4-hour level major channel testing, beware of false breakdown signals**
From the 4-hour level, Bitcoin is still within a major channel, but after multiple tests at the bottom, the market may exhibit false breakdown phenomena. If most investors see the downward trend of the channel and decide to go long, we need to be cautious of the risk of market liquidity being attracted. Therefore, it is advised to first reduce some positions, while the remaining positions can continue to be held.
5. **Focus on key support levels of the major channel**
If the major channel at the 4-hour level really breaks down, the range of 94,000—92,000 yuan may just be a false breakdown short-term position, with the real support level possibly retracing to around 85,000 yuan.
6. **ETH not optimistic**
It has already broken the second line of defense at 3500, and may further decline.
Summary
Although Old Bao's remarks have a policy adjustment, the market also has panic emotions, but the overall trend still persists.