December 18, 2024

Tonight is the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting. The current market expectation is to continue lowering by 25 basis points. If the market continues as expected, there won't be significant fluctuations, and the possibility of a further decrease of 50 basis points is very low. In fact, from a macro perspective, the most challenging time for the market was when the dollar interest rates were at their highest, and it's clear that this period has passed. It is expected that there will be three more rate cuts next year, and as the pace of rate cuts accelerates, more dollars will flood into the market.

The recent increase in Bitcoin's price has clearly benefited from increased liquidity and boosted investor confidence, along with ETFs opening up a channel for capital into the U.S. stock market, resulting in Bitcoin reaching $100,000. However, it is worth noting that recent ETFs are still showing a net inflow, while the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum have shown signs of stagnation, especially with Ethereum facing pressure at the $4,000 level, which is not as significant as the pressure at $4,800.

This raises the point that Bitcoin's influence has not yet been seized by Wall Street capital; I believe it still resides in the hands of miners and old whales, especially when it comes to market manipulation. Furthermore, looking at the trends of altcoins, there is a clear indication that they need to take a break; the main forces behind Bitcoin's rise seem reluctant to continue playing along and are instead selling at highs. The recent downward trend is the best proof of this.

In terms of market conditions, looking at this position, I believe there is a 'halftime' trend over the long term, meaning that the double holidays still need to pass, but the bull market is not over; rather, it will continue after a rest, which aligns with next year being the most FOMO cycle. In the medium term, there are already clear selling signals throughout the market, including some major players around me who have basically completed the cleanup of their high positions. Therefore, over the past two weeks, I have strongly advised everyone to gradually reduce their positions. So far, if the positions have been significantly reduced, one can consider buying back on dips recently and trading in waves, but the principle is that the total position should not be larger than before, or one should patiently hold onto USDT, waiting for an irrational market drop.

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