1） 
No. 19 Follow up from the 19th, and buy only 1 as an observation object, as the operation in cognition + judgment + operation. Next, I will conduct a comprehensive review from: cognition + observation + judgment + operation + result. It is not only a systematic arrangement of my view of the project, but also a reference for communication. It may not be completely correct, but it must have communication value. I hope everyone can click three times, it is not easy to write, thank you for your support
2) On the afternoon of the 19th, I first paid attention to ponz. The source of information was @0xSunNFT Sun’s boss tweeted. I would basically study the projects he paid attention to in depth. Observation: I looked at the official tweet (it was a fake tweet at the time), the official website, and the pictures. There were not many highlights, but there were two points that made me decide to study it in depth.Ponz's Narrative
The project has pua attributes, and it is concluded that it has something in common with shit. Image: Tugou quality
3) Tweets: Even if what I saw was a fake official tweet, it still had a lot of PUA attributes. At that time, I had a vague intuition that the tweet would have a pull effect. Later, this intuition has been verified. Where did this intuition come from: from the cutting and replay of shit Official website: Judging the cost of the official website, I thought the cost was not high and not sophisticated at the time. Then two friends left messages saying that the official website was not bad. One of them had a certain level of artistic appreciation. So I took it seriously and went to ask my friends in Shenzhen for advice. I sent the PONZ official website to the other party to get an estimate. Due to the Chinese New Year, I didn’t get an estimate. Then I went to Taobao to ask, but didn’t get it. Next time I’ll try Zhubajie. (If you have the ability or resources to evaluate the cost of website production, please DM me. I’ll ask you later.) After completing this round of actions, I concluded: 100% Tugou. It doesn’t meet my liquidity requirements in terms of security, but it’s worth observing.
4) So I set the goal of not getting on the bus, but focused on studying its operation and trading, and earning experience without making money. Level 2: I did some analysis and concluded that the floor is stable around 0.03. It is predicted that there will be buying and official orders when I get up in the West at night. Tweeting the next day can pull up the market. The floor is thin. I even predict that I can hit 0.09 and touch 0.1 that night. Operation: In order to achieve the unity of knowledge and action and drive my own market research, I bought 3 tokens at 0.03, gas 10u, and ended up buying Two failed, one deal was made
Result: The secondary judgment of Western buying was correct, but the price prediction time was wrong. It did not rush to 0.09 that night, but fluctuated back and forth. The reason was that the popularity was not high at that time, and the official Twitter account (the fake one) did not post much.
7）
On the evening of the 19th, the main observations were: Level 2, emotional aspects, and official operations. Level 2: No one dumped the market in the afternoon, and 0.02 was very stable (Chinese). Someone dumped it to around 0.01 in the evening, and then it was swept to 0.02. Judgment: Chinese players were also waiting for the official Twitter to post an article and the West to wake up in the evening. The West bought when it woke up, but the buying and selling potential was not strong, indicating that everyone was holding positions and observing. Then I judged that the official Twitter would pull up the market if it released some positive news the next day.
Operation: None Judgment method: I have previously discussed the secondary judgment method in detail in Togo's space, including the basic total volume, price, transaction volume, pending orders, chip cost distribution, time zone impact, etc.; the sentiment aspect is around Twitter popularity, group popularity, Chinese & Western big V attention, etc. I haven't discussed it in detail. If you are interested, please follow me. I will talk about it separately later.
8） 
Observation on the morning of the 20th: The real official tweeted against the fake tweet and tweeted that the coin will be issued soon. The floor fell from 0.009 and then swept up to 0.04. Some people started to discuss it, and it went viral for the first time. And some people are repeatedly trading. I once again said that ponz has a lot of shit in common. The real official tweeted that the coin can be issued to pull the market. Operation: I studied its gas fee. Ponz's gas is twice as high as that of ordinary projects. It should be related to the setting of contract deployment. The more perfect the contract, the higher the cost and the lower the gas should be. Therefore, ponz's contract should control the cost, so the gas is so high. The project party controls the cost in contract deployment, so I tend to think that he is looking for technical outsourcing. If you want to find a project for technical outsourcing, you will understand.
9） 
21st Observation and judgment: The floor continued to rise after fluctuating between 0.02-0.045, and the floor remained near 0.06. There were many profit-taking orders and selling pressure. Many people were paying attention to the sentiment at that time. I felt that the profit-loss ratio of 0.06 was not good, and gave a boarding point of 0.02-0.03. Operation: Wait Result: It really fell to around 0.028 in the evening, but was quickly swept up by others, and once swept to 0.05
10） 
On the 22nd, the official account was very diligent, tweeting frequently, and trying to get attention everywhere, including Musk and Vitalik Buterin. On the night of the 21st, the floor was pulled to around 0.08, and the fomo sentiment became more and more serious. The rhythm of the floor pull and tweeting was very close, which once again verified my judgment on the pull effect of his tweet. So after a simple review of the lower market and the emotional side, I made a judgment that it would break 0.1 within a week and the current price of 0.08 would not have a high profit and loss ratio. Operation: Observation
11） 
23rd Observation: Last night at midnight, the floor fell to around 0.05, and then this morning it surged all the way, first breaking 0.1, then breaking 0.15, rushing to 0.18 and touching 0.2. It went viral for the second time, and almost all groups were discussing ponz, including those who play tdog and those who play serious NFT, and there were discussions on Twitter and WeChat, and the official shit tweeted and retweeted, which once again confirmed my intuition on the 19th that ponz has something in common with shit
Judgment: From 0.02 to 0.1, it has increased by 5 times. The goal of just observing and not getting on board has been achieved. I don’t plan to spend time and energy to look down. I dare to judge that 70% of the people are Chinese, and there is a high probability that they are from Shenzhen. The good English of the official promotion is just an appearance.
12） 
ponz summary Digging projects: NFT high-quality KOL Observation points: official push, official website, pictures, secondary, highlights Cognitive aspects: I have a certain understanding and experience of the Twitter pull effect of NFT projects, project PUA attributes, and project narrative stories Judgment:100% tudog, safety is 0, does not meet my boarding conditions
The official account has a strong PUA attribute, and the relationship between posting and posting is close. I call this phenomenon the Twitter pull effect.
The initial judgment of the official website is not high quality, but someone with high artistic level said it is good, which attracted my attention and investigation; the pictures are undoubtedly dogs; the second level uses the old method to look at the price trend;
There are two highlights. One is the story of Ponzi (everything is Ponzi/all NFTs are shit, a familiar formula). The other is the Twitter pull effect and PUA attributes, which is also a familiar formula.
Overall operation: basically achieve unity of knowledge and action, symbolically buy and sell 1, not counted as getting on the train, in line with the original intention of watching more and doing less. Gains: The biggest gain is the psychological quality of investment: overcoming fomo, firmly implementing more watching and not moving; project judgment has been verified and improved; most of the secondary predictions are correct, but the judgment of 0.03-0.09 on the first day was wrong, ignoring the need for the development process of heat, that is, the fit between price and timing; in addition, I did not go to the official website to verify the official pusher in the first time, resulting in the attention of the fake official pusher. The whole review has been here. My liquidity is limited, so I basically implement the strategy of watching more and doing less for Tugou. In addition, I put aside the secondary NFT. I hope this post is useful to you and communicate more. Those who can look at the website to evaluate the production cost can DM to communicate.
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