First of all, no matter who you are or how you entered this circle, I believe everyone knows the passion and terror of this circle—one thought leads to heaven, another leads to hell.
The domestic economy is declining, or to put it nicely (the economic growth rate is slowing down), which is an undeniable fact. The most important and difficult issue the country faces is capital outflow. Honestly, the most difficult situation for the entire middle class in the country is that they cannot see upward, but they feel they are okay when looking downward. Currently, the domestic economic environment makes it hard for you to have opportunities to break out of your class. Looking downward, you must constantly maintain your current level, otherwise, it is easy to go bankrupt, or with a slight mistake, you may not be able to maintain it.
This article does not discriminate, does not belittle, and has no other intentions. However, class divisions will certainly exist in any country, social attribute, or social system. What is the biggest situation faced by the lowest class people now? The opportunities and pathways to cross class or break out of this class are becoming fewer and harder. The upward passage is becoming narrower. How many undergraduate students graduate each year? How many can find jobs with a monthly salary of over 5k? What about vocational and technical students? After upgrading their education, how many graduate students can find jobs with a monthly salary of 5k? A portion flows to society, and there is a term called self-employment (without resources, connections, abilities, opportunities, and without policy support, the chance for an ordinary family to succeed is almost zero; the upward passage is too narrow). A portion flows to public examination teams, but the entire state machine cannot afford so many applicants each year, which is why there are layoffs or the simplification of the civil service team and wage reductions. The national finances cannot support so much money.
Internet dividends, have you seen Douyin? It seems like internet celebrities make money easily, through live-streaming e-commerce, star map income, and live broadcast income. Those who can benefit from internet dividends, especially so-called internet celebrities, must be making money. However, I dare say that in the future, income from the internet, especially from internet celebrities, and the so-called internet economy will be suppressed. Quality bloggers or internet celebrities will retain live-streaming e-commerce channels, but there will be regulation and related legislation. The internet economy has suppressed the real economy to an unimaginable extent. Live-streaming e-commerce, helping farmers and producers, and low-priced products are beneficial to the national economy and have a stimulating effect. What I am more concerned about is the income from advertisements received by internet celebrities, star map income, and live broadcast gifts. Why will they be suppressed? The values provided are problematic; the Confucian system does not allow it. Or you could say that the new generation is all becoming internet celebrities; then who will be the farmers? Who will be the workers? Everyone sees that making money through the internet is so easy, but who will fill the gap for the grassroots labor force? Who will build the infrastructure? The upward passage will only become narrower and harder to pass through (especially for ordinary families or slightly poorer families).
The rich are getting richer. So, who do the rich make money from? The rich make money from the poor. The poor's money is the easiest to earn. The highly educated earn money from the less educated. That's all I have to say on this topic.
The theme of the domestic economy in 2025 is difficult exploration. This is not just my opinion; it is stated by the country. What we are facing is a protracted battle to break the deflation. The more difficult the times, the more opportunities there are. To break deflation, macroeconomic regulation will follow, mostly resulting in positive outcomes. For the domestic market, A-shares will be stimulated, especially the innovation sector. Looking at the U.S., domestic debt is at a new high. There is a saying that the U.S. economy is strong, but in reality, everyone is in a similar situation—severe polarization. The rich are getting richer (the claim of a strong economy is more reflected in the U.S. stock market and among those with financial assets), while on the other hand, the basic performance shows a downgrade in consumption and a rising unemployment rate. This is not just my opinion; this is what people living in the U.S. have discussed with me. Therefore, I want to tell everyone that regardless of whether the opportunities are domestic or international, your personal entry into the real economy is limited. More opportunities will be in financial products (A-shares, U.S. stocks, cryptocurrencies, oil, gold).
The impact after Trump took office; here I will only focus on cryptocurrencies. It is unlikely that the interest rate cut policy will change significantly. The important thing is whether the Trump administration will fulfill the promises made at the cryptocurrency conference after taking office. However, I personally feel that the probability of benefiting the entire cryptocurrency market will be very high. For any financial product, macroeconomic favorable regulation and policies will definitely outweigh the technical aspects.
Insert a picture of New Zealand's fjord topography (Why hold the national flag? Because China does not have fjord topography.)
Is it normal for BTC to drop from 108,000 to 104,800? Is it normal to drop to 100,000? It is very normal. The tone of the bull market is still to correct and look bullish. Don't panic, because there are few opportunities to cross class. The cryptocurrency market is one of them. Seize the opportunity; timing is the most important. The rest will be about people and relationships. Pepe will tell you that if you need to add to your position, BNB should hold at 800 unchanged, and SOL around 235-240 should also remain unchanged.
That's all I have to say!