1. Project overview
(1) Introduction to the Usual project background
In the current cryptocurrency market, the popularity of stablecoins continues to rise, becoming a focal area of interest for many investors. On one hand, the acquisition of a stablecoin payment company by global payment giants like Stripe highlights the development potential of stablecoins in the payment market; on the other hand, the CEO of Coinbase noted that stablecoin trading volume has approached Visa's data, reflecting the growing influence of stablecoins in the market.
In this industry-wide environment, there is a strong demand for stablecoin-related products. Investors are eager to find innovative stablecoin projects that provide both stability and yield. The Usual project has emerged in such an opportunity, aiming to create a safe, decentralized platform for issuing fiat-backed stablecoins, with goals of decentralized management, transparent yield distribution, and the introduction of real-world assets (RWA).
As a multi-chain infrastructure, Usual integrates tokenized real-world assets (RWA) from entities like BlackRock, Ondo, and Mountain Protocol, transforming them into permissionless, on-chain verifiable, and composable stablecoin USD0, promoting the free flow of global financial resources on-chain, bringing new ideas and models to the stablecoin market, and attempting to carve a niche in the fiercely competitive stablecoin arena. It is expected to become one of the leaders in the future payment market, especially against the backdrop of gradually clarifying market regulations and overall market maturation, attracting significant attention for its development prospects.
(2) Basic information about Usual tokens
The Usual token, namely USUAL, has clear and unique basic attributes. Its maximum supply is set at 4,000,000,000 USUAL, with an initial circulation of 494,600,000 USUAL, accounting for 12.37% of the total token supply. Among them, the total amount allocated for Binance Launchpool is 300,000,000 USUAL, accounting for 7.5% of the maximum token supply.
This token operates on the Ethereum smart contract network (contract code: 0x430a2712cEFaaC8cb66E9cb29fF267CFcfA38a42), which provides the underlying technical support and guarantees for the trading, circulation, and implementation of related functions of USUAL.
In terms of distribution, the Usual project adheres to a community-centered philosophy, allocating 90% of the tokens to community users, including USD0++ holders, liquidity providers (LP), stakers, and participants in other protocol products, while the distribution for internal team members does not exceed 10% of the circulating supply. This distribution model highlights Usual's emphasis on the community's 'decentralization' spirit amidst the current market calls for 'fairness' and lays a solid foundation for the project's sustainable development.
2. Core mechanism analysis of the Usual project
(1) Stablecoin USD0 mechanism
USD0 is the basic stablecoin in the Usual project ecosystem. It supports its value by holding real-world assets (RWA), including US short-term government bonds and overnight reverse repurchase agreements. This approach is similar to other RWA-backed projects like FRAX and Grypscope. Unlike existing stablecoins (such as Tether's USDT), which mainly rely on cash and short-term debt instruments, USD0 effectively enhances its stability and risk resistance by leveraging a diversified RWA asset pool, allowing it to better cope with risks brought by market volatility and ensuring relative stability in value under various complex market conditions.
Additionally, the issuance and repurchase mechanism of USD0 is executed automatically based on predetermined rules. This automation greatly reduces the impact of human factors on currency value fluctuations, allowing the value to vary according to established rules that align with the project's economic model, enabling USD0 to possess strong anti-inflation capabilities while maintaining relative stability during large-scale market fluctuations. Compared to some stablecoin mechanisms that require manual intervention with lengthy decision-making processes and are easily influenced by subjective factors, the automated nature of USD0 is undoubtedly a significant advantage, providing investors with more reliable and predictable value protection and helping the entire project build a good reputation and credibility in the stablecoin market, attracting more users to participate in various application scenarios and businesses based on USD0.
(2) Bond product USD0++ mechanism
USD0++, as an innovative bond product of the Usual project, provides users with a way to achieve higher returns by locking USD0 assets. Compared to traditional government bonds, USD0++ has a unique yield model, amplifying the returns from RWA assets, enabling users to enjoy higher returns. Specifically, the income from USD0++ directly corresponds to the RWA assets contributed by the user, rather than the average yield of all reserves. This means that each user, after converting their funds into USD0++, will receive income entirely based on the returns generated by the specific RWA (e.g., US short-term treasury bills) supporting those funds, rather than pooling together all participants' funds to distribute the average returns of the entire reserve. This model, which links income directly to the RWA assets contributed by the user, features greater transparency and personalization, allowing participants to clearly understand the source and calculation method of their earnings.
Moreover, the USD0++ mechanism design plays an important role. On one hand, it can enhance the long-term stability of funds by reducing short-term volatility risks through the locking mechanism, allowing the project’s fund pool to maintain a relatively stable state over a longer time dimension, which is helpful in coping with various sudden market changes and external shocks. On the other hand, users can benefit from the potential appreciation brought by the protocol's development through holding USD0++, aligning their interests with the overall development of the protocol and incentivizing users to hold long-term and actively participate in the project’s ecological construction, forming a virtuous cycle of mutual growth and promotion.
(3) Governance token Usual mechanism
As a governance token, Usual holds a crucial position and role in the entire project. Its holders are granted numerous powers to influence decisions within the protocol, covering key areas such as risk management, liquidity strategy, and the development of new features. This means that token holders can deeply participate in the project's operation and direction, driving the project forward based on their judgment and expectations.
Notably, the Usual token is linked to protocol revenue, with all protocol earnings from USD0++ distributed to Usual token holders. This feature makes the Usual token not just a simple governance tool, but also a representation of the protocol's value growth, allowing holders to directly benefit from the project's revenue increase, thereby enhancing the intrinsic value and appeal of the Usual token.
At the same time, the distribution and circulation mechanisms of the Usual token will gradually adjust based on the development of community governance. In the early stages of the project, the distribution of tokens is mainly concentrated among early investors and core team members, which helps the project secure necessary funding and resources in its start-up phase. As the protocol expands and the community continues to grow, the subsequent release of tokens will gradually slow down. This approach aims to ensure a balance in market supply and demand, avoid price fluctuations caused by oversupply, maintain the relative stability of token value, and protect the interests of various participants within the entire project ecosystem, promoting sustainable development.
3. Relevant circumstances of Usual token listing
(1) Binance Launchpool listing situation
On November 15, 2024, at 10:00 (UTC), Binance will launch its 61st project Usual (USUAL) on Launchpool and open pre-market trading. The time for users to participate in mining is from November 15, 2024, 00:00 to November 18, 2024, 23:59 (UTC), during which they can lock BNB and FDUSD for mining.
In terms of specific reward rules, locking BNB can reward 255,000,000 USUAL, accounting for 85% of the total rewards; locking FDUSD can reward 8,250,000 USUAL, accounting for 15% of the total rewards. Additionally, there are related restrictions, such as the need for KYC (Know Your Customer) certification, with a personal hourly mining cap of 265,625 USUAL for the BNB pool and 46,875 USUAL for the FDUSD pool.
From the initial operational model upon launch, the method of allowing users to invest BNB and FDUSD to participate in mining for USUAL tokens aims to attract more users to participate in the Usual project, leveraging Binance's vast user base to lay the groundwork for the initial distribution and circulation of tokens, as well as paving the way for subsequent entry into the pre-market and formal spot trading, allowing more investors to get involved in the project ecosystem in advance and increasing its visibility and influence.
(2) Pre-market situation
The Usual token will be listed on Binance's pre-market on November 19, 2024, at 18:00 (UTC+8), with the trading pair USUAL/USDT open. However, there are personal maximum holding limits in the pre-market; if a user’s spot holdings exceed the limit of 40,000 USUAL, they will be unable to continue purchasing in the pre-market. Additionally, due to legal and regulatory requirements, users in certain regions will not be able to participate in this pre-market trading.
In terms of price performance and fluctuations, different times have shown different trends. For example, Binance's pre-market data previously showed that the Usual token USUAL broke through $0.8, rising 36.5% in 24 hours, with a current quote of $0.805, peaking at $0.822; it also reached a highest quote of $0.478, currently reported at $0.3798. These price fluctuations reflect the market's differing expectations and the tug-of-war of buying and selling power for the Usual token during the pre-market phase, which is also influenced by the overall cryptocurrency market environment and relevant project news. Its subsequent performance during the formal spot trading phase is of great interest to investors.
4. Factors affecting the price of Usual token after listing
(1) Market heat factors
Currently, the popularity of stablecoins in the cryptocurrency market is on a continuous rise. From a macro perspective, the acquisition of a stablecoin payment company by global payment giant Stripe, along with Coinbase's CEO pointing out that stablecoin trading volume has approached Visa's data, all demonstrate the increasing influence of stablecoins in the market, leading to heightened investor attention towards stablecoin-related projects.
In such a broader environment, Usual, as an innovative stablecoin project, naturally attracts market attention. Particularly, its launch on Binance's Launchpool and entry into the pre-market has caught the eye of many cryptocurrency investors and enthusiasts. For instance, in the case of similar projects that launched on Binance in the past, some innovative mechanism or unique application scenario stablecoin projects often attract significant capital inflow and trading enthusiasm at the initial stage due to market curiosity about novelty and expectations of potential returns.
This market heat has a significant impact on the price trend of the Usual token. If the market heat can continue to maintain a high level, more investors will be willing to participate in the Usual project, whether by participating in mining to acquire tokens or trading in subsequent spot trading phases, which will increase demand for the Usual token. According to the principles of supply and demand, the rise in demand will push its price up to some extent; conversely, if the market heat gradually fades and investor participation decreases, demand diminishes, the price may face downward pressure.
(2) Project's own mechanism factors
The Usual project has a unique and complex set of mechanisms that influence the token's supply, scarcity, and value from multiple dimensions, subsequently impacting its price after listing.
Firstly, from the design of stablecoins and governance tokens, the stablecoin USD0 is supported by holding real-world assets (RWA), such as US short-term government bonds and overnight reverse repurchase agreements, separating it from the governance token Usual. This design avoids concentrating returns and risks in the same token, allowing Usual to be directly linked to protocol revenue distribution, enhancing its value as a governance token. At the same time, the Usual token adopts a deflationary mechanism, enabling early participants to receive more tokens, and as the total locked value (TVL) increases, the amount of token distribution gradually decreases. This helps maintain the scarcity of tokens, positively supporting prices in the long term.
Secondly, the project's deflationary issuance mechanism is also crucial. In the distribution of Usual tokens, a dynamic reward mechanism linked to protocol revenue has been created, closely tying token value to platform growth and stability. As the protocol develops, the growth of token supply will gradually slow, with potential further reductions in market circulation through buyback and destruction methods, creating a situation of supply not meeting demand, which in turn drives prices up.
Furthermore, the relationship between the Usual token and the staked asset TVL is also worth noting. When the platform's total locked value (TVL) increases, it indicates that the project has attracted more asset inflows, with positive ecological development, thereby enhancing market confidence in the project. This will also affect the release and distribution of Usual tokens according to established mechanisms, indirectly impacting their scarcity and value, ultimately reflecting in price fluctuations.
(3) Platform effect factors
Binance, as a globally recognized cryptocurrency trading platform, possesses strong platform influence, unique listing strategies, and significant 'wealth effects,' all of which play a key role in influencing the price movements of the Usual token.
Binance's influence is reflected in its vast user base and high market recognition. A large number of users means high potential trading activity, providing ample buyers and sellers for the Usual token, ensuring market liquidity. When the Usual token is listed on Binance's Launchpool and pre-market, leveraging Binance's brand effect can quickly attract the attention of many investors, significantly increasing the project's exposure.
From Binance's listing strategy, its choice to launch the Usual project itself reflects a certain degree of recognition of the project, sending positive signals to the market. In the past, new tokens listed on Binance often experience a 'wealth effect,' where some new tokens see significant price increases shortly after listing, attracting more capital inflow. For the Usual token, this 'wealth effect' can also trigger investors' herd mentality, drawing external funds into its trading market. More capital inflow means stronger buying power, which, under the influence of supply and demand relationships, helps drive the price of the Usual token up.
At the same time, the various trading pair settings, trading rules, and related activities on the Binance platform will also affect the trading conditions and price trends of the Usual token. For example, the mining reward rules during the Launchpool phase stimulate users to participate in acquiring tokens, laying the groundwork for subsequent market trading; while the personal position limits in the pre-market can adjust market supply and demand and trading activity, indirectly influencing price formation and fluctuations.
5. Price prediction analysis
(1) Short-term price prediction
Based on the aforementioned influencing factors, combined with the existing price performance of the Usual token in the pre-market and short-term market sentiment, it is expected that the price will exhibit certain volatility characteristics shortly after its launch (within one week to one month), potentially remaining within a specific range of fluctuations, showing corresponding highs or lows.
From the pre-market data available, Binance's pre-market data previously showed that the Usual token USUAL broke through $0.8, rising 36.5% in 24 hours, with a current quote of $0.805, peaking at $0.822; there was also a time when it reached a high quote of $0.478, currently reported at $0.3798. In the early stages of listing, market heat factors are likely to continue playing a role. Given the current rising popularity of stablecoins in the cryptocurrency market and the unique mechanisms of the Usual project, along with its launch on the Binance platform and various eye-catching highlights, attention from the market during the Launchpool phase has already been significant, prompting many investors to take action. Therefore, within a week after the launch, a large influx of investors is likely to drive its price up, and following this trend, its price may break through $1, reaching around $1.2. However, it should also be noted that some users in certain regions may be unable to participate in pre-market trading due to legal and regulatory requirements, which may impose some limitations on overall market demand growth in the short term. Additionally, some investors who participated in the Launchpool mining and have already profited in the pre-market may choose to sell off when the price reaches a certain high, which may create some resistance to price increases.
In summary, within the first week after listing, the Usual token price may fluctuate between $0.8 and $1.2. Over the month, as market novelty slightly diminishes and deeper understanding of the project develops, the weight of the project's own mechanism factors will gradually increase. The stablecoin USD0, supported by real-world assets (RWA), the deflationary mechanism of the governance token Usual, and features linked to protocol revenue will slowly be more fully digested by the market. If the project can continue to announce positive progress, such as collaborations with new protocols or the launch of new features, enhancing market confidence, the price is expected to remain above $0.8 and test near $1.5; however, adverse situations such as technical failures or negative public opinion may lead to a price retracement to around $0.6, fluctuating overall between $0.6 and $1.5.
(2) Medium-term price prediction
From a medium-term perspective (three to six months), the price trend of the Usual token will be more influenced by various factors such as the project's subsequent operational plans, community development, market acceptance, and industry competition. Its overall trend may exhibit volatile adjustments and gradually tend towards stable growth.
Regarding the project's subsequent operational plans, according to its published roadmap, it will continue to establish partnerships with new protocols, further enhancing the usability of Usual assets across multiple chains and unlocking more possibilities for user engagement. For instance, if it successfully integrates deeply with well-known protocols such as Curve, Morpho, and Pendle, allowing the Usual token to be applied in more scenarios, its value will undoubtedly be further enhanced, attracting more investors and users into the ecosystem, providing robust support for the price and driving steady increases.
Community development is also crucial. The Usual project adheres to a community-centered philosophy, allocating 90% of the tokens to community users, which helps consolidate community power. As the community continues to grow, participants will actively engage in project governance, providing liquidity and other aspects, promoting healthy project development and enhancing the token's value. For example, community members actively participating in staking USUALx unlock future governance rights and receive 10% of all $USUAL issued by the protocol. This series of operations will enhance market demand for the token, driving its price up.
However, it is also important to recognize the competitive pressure in the industry. The stablecoin arena is inherently competitive; although Usual has unique advantages, traditional stablecoins like USDT have already captured a significant market share, and other emerging stablecoin projects continue to emerge. The market's acceptance of Usual will take time, during which investors will constantly compare and weigh the returns and risks of different stablecoins. Therefore, in the medium term, prices are not expected to rise steadily; instead, they will fluctuate and adjust with project progress news, market sentiment, and changes in the competitive landscape. It is anticipated that in about three months, the price may fluctuate between $1 and $2, with potential for stabilization around $2 as the project continues to improve.
(3) Long-term price prediction
Looking at the long-term (over six months or even longer), the long-term development trend of the Usual token price needs to analyze its competitiveness in the stablecoin arena, sustainability, and ability to respond to market changes and regulatory requirements to determine whether it has long-term investment value.
From a competitiveness perspective, the Usual project's stablecoin USD0 is supported by holding real-world assets (RWA), such as US short-term government bonds and overnight reverse repurchase agreements, giving it stronger stability and risk resistance compared to some traditional stablecoins that rely on cash and single short-term debt instruments. Furthermore, its innovative bond product USD0++ offers users a way to obtain higher returns, and the governance token Usual is linked to protocol revenue, making the entire project’s economic model unique and attractive, allowing it to stand out among numerous stablecoin projects. As long as it can continue to maintain and strengthen this advantage, it will secure a place in the long-term stablecoin market competition, ensuring stable enhancement of token value.
In terms of sustainability, the project team has been actively preparing a series of integrations and new features, such as plans to introduce a metering mechanism to guide liquidity and allowing holders to decide on fund management and collateral allocation. This indicates that the project has a clear long-term development plan and focuses on continuously iterating and updating based on market changes and community needs. At the same time, the model of allocating 90% of tokens to the community also helps attract more users to participate in the project's ecological construction, ensuring sustainable development and fundamentally supporting the continuous rise of token prices.
In response to market changes and regulatory requirements, the Usual team needs to timely adjust operational strategies based on the overall bull and bear cycles of the cryptocurrency market, changes in investor preferences, etc. For example, during a bear market, they can attract users and funds by strengthening collaborations with other projects and offering attractive staking rewards; during a bull market, they can accelerate feature updates and expand market share. As for regulation, with the global regulatory clarity regarding cryptocurrencies, especially stablecoins, if Usual can actively embrace regulation and ensure compliant operations, such as guaranteeing the sufficient collateralization of USD0's real assets and transparency of information, it can avoid value shocks caused by regulatory issues.
In summary, as long as the Usual project can steadily implement various plans, continuously adapt to market changes, and meet regulatory requirements, its token possesses long-term investment value. The price is expected to achieve sustained growth over the long term, potentially rising from around $2 after six months to $5 or even higher within a year, with further potential for continued growth as the overall stablecoin market expands and the project's own development progresses.
