⚠️ Bitcoin breaks $107K barrier

What is happening on the blockchain among new buyers?

There are four main categories of “fresh money” or newcomers to the cryptocurrency market:

- Holding for 1-3 months

- Holding for 7-30 days

- Holding for 1-7 days

- Holding for less than 24 hours

Historically, with each cycle reaching a new peak, the proportion of fresh money has gradually decreased proportionally (as shown in Chart 1). Based on this, the potential percentage of Bitcoin purchases with new funds can be estimated, when reached, the market risks increase to the maximum

1. The total percentage of purchases of the four categories is currently around 47%, while the peak is expected to reach around 60% (there is still room for growth)

2. Excluding the oldest category (1-3 months), the current percentage of all purchases from wallets less than a month old is around 35%, with an expected peak of 44% (there is also room for growth)

3. When removing all periods exceeding a week, leaving only funds that entered the market within less than 7 days, we find that we have almost reached the ceiling, and we are even witnessing signs of a deviation with the price

When 5-10% of the liquid supply is released to the market, the impact is limited. But when the percentage rises to 30-40%, the market is unable to absorb such a large volume of selling at one moment

leading to the end of the cycle