• Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies were little changed on Monday, stabilizing near levels close to the peak of a recent rally.

  • The price of Bitcoin has fallen less than 1% in the past 24 hours to below $36,950, sliding further from its recent peak of around $38,000.

  • Tuesday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data and Wednesday's retail sales data could both serve as catalysts for a recalibration of interest rate expectations.

Bitcoin price starts to fluctuate slowly ahead of US economic data release; how will BTC perform this week? Is $38K OK?

Bitcoin price slows ahead of data release

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies were little changed on Monday, stabilizing near levels close to the peak of a recent rally. However, technical indicators are flashing signs that prices could be vulnerable to some losses.

Bitcoin prices fell less than 1% in the past 24 hours, falling below $36,950, further down from recent peaks around $38,000 but still within a range that has lasted about a week. The largest digital asset has risen nearly 40% after nearly a month of low volatility and rising trading volume, which together with call options indicate the arrival of a new bull run.

Like the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500, Bitcoin is likely to react to this week’s macroeconomic data, which could affect interest expectations as borrowing costs play a major role in demand for risk assets.

Traders are optimistic that the Fed will complete its rate hikes in the near term, but Fed Chairman Powell said last week that rate hikes could still continue, so this week's economic data is crucial. Tuesday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data and Wednesday's retail sales data could both be catalysts for recalibrating interest rate expectations. Bitbank analyst Yuya Hasekawa said:

“The overall financial markets look optimistic that this week’s US CPI and retail sales will show slowing inflation and increasing demand, if so, Bitcoin could test $38,000.”

Negative Cases for Bitcoin

However, in the short term, Bitcoin’s technical market fundamentals may become decisive after a few weeks of gains, which could put pressure on the overall price of the cryptocurrency. Hasegawa said:

“Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) tends to show deviations from the price trend, indicating a trend reversal, which has occurred twice this year and usually lasts for about a month until the price trend changes... Bitcoin’s price trend may begin to reverse by the end of this week.”

Aside from Bitcoin, Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, rose less than 1% to $2,050 after gaining ground following news that BlackRock filed for a spot Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF). The situation was more mixed for smaller cryptocurrencies, or altcoins, with Cardano down 4% and Polygon up 5%. Meme coins were lower, with Dogecoin and Shiba Inu both down more than 1%.

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