#重大空投观察 is the last key economic data before the Federal Reserve's year-end meeting this year, and tonight's CPI data is drawing significant attention. The market generally expects a slight rebound in overall CPI, although the Federal Reserve strives to keep the inflation rate within the target range of 2%. However, the volatility of recent economic indicators has raised quite a bit of uncertainty, especially against the backdrop of Trump’s imminent return to the White House, where future trade policies and tax reforms may have additional impacts on the path to interest rate cuts.

CPI is approaching, but the prospect of interest rate cuts has changed.

Data shows that the market expects tonight’s U.S. inflation data to possibly break the levels of the past three months, recording at 2.7%. Although the inflation data will have a significant impact on the market's short-term trends, under the circumstances where a 25 basis point rate cut seems almost certain, the threshold for this CPI data to completely reverse the expectations for rate cuts is relatively high. As of the time of writing, the interest rate market is betting that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points next week is as high as 86%.

It is reported that most Federal Reserve officials still have high hopes for the medium-term target, but the road to inflation returning to the Federal Reserve's 2% target seems increasingly difficult. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated last week that a strong U.S. economy means that the Federal Open Market Committee can be “more cautious” on the path to lowering rates to a neutral rate. Some viewpoints suggest that in the short term, an economic slowdown will support the Fed's continued rate cuts, but coupled with concerns about re-inflation after Trump takes office again, it may constrain the medium- and long-term space for rate cuts.

Funds flowing in, accelerating the mainstreaming trend of BTC

In addition, U.S. institutional investors are aggressively buying Bitcoin. From those already involved like MicroStrategy and Tesla, to potential entrants like Microsoft and Amazon, Bitcoin's expansion into the mainstream world seems to be accelerating.

At the same time, the scale of funds for the U.S. spot BTC ETF continues to expand, achieving net inflows for eight consecutive trading days, with a cumulative amount reaching $3.969 billion. This trend of capital inflow shows the market's long-term optimism towards Bitcoin.