Despite institutional inflows from Bitcoin ETFs and MicroStrategy, Bitcoin prices continue to face resistance as selling by long-term holders intensifies.
Bitcoin price faces huge resistance and has been unable to break through the $100,000 mark despite institutional inflows. One factor that investors need to pay attention to is that long-term holders are still increasing their BTC selling despite large institutional buying from institutions such as MicroStrategy and Bitcoin ETFs. Why did the Bitcoin price fall below $100,000? Since the surge in Bitcoin sparked by Donald Trump's victory, long-term holders are still selling their holdings in large quantities. In the past 30 days, this group has sold 827,783 Bitcoins, leaving a strong bearish signal for on-chain activity.
On the other hand, institutional investors continue to buy heavily, with a large influx of funds into spot Bitcoin ETFs. According to renowned cryptocurrency analyst Maartunn, MicroStrategy purchased 149,880 BTC in the past 30 days, while the total inflow into spot Bitcoin ETFs was 84,193 BTC. However, their total inflow is far below the total sell-off by long-term holders. Last week, net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $2.73 billion, setting a record for the highest weekly inflow since inception. Of this, only the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF IBIT saw a net inflow of $2.6 billion, with assets under management surpassing $50 billion. So, what exactly caused Bitcoin's price to soar to a historic high of $104,000? Similar to previous bull market cycles, retail enthusiasm and short-term holders are dominating the spotlight. Recent data shows that retail demand surged to its highest level of the year in the past 30 days, reflecting increased activity in a strong upward trend.
Short-term holders (typically dominated by retail investors) are absorbing most of the supply. Additionally, Maartunn points out that retail participation has extended beyond the spot market, with altcoin open interest soaring to $53.3 billion, while Bitcoin open interest surged to $30.6 billion. This analyst notes that the significant presence of retail investors in both the spot and derivatives markets highlights the high-risk 'musical chairs' dynamic, while suggesting caution when market sentiment changes. Extreme fear and greed signs indicate that the cryptocurrency fear and greed index has soared to 84, suggesting the market is 'extremely greedy'—a level often associated with high risk and potential market tops.
In addition to the fear and greed index, other indicators such as the seller risk ratio and net recipient trading volume (ETH) also suggest that the market may be peaking. These signals are consistent with the bearish on-chain data observed in last week's price movements.
In addition to the fear and greed index, other indicators such as the seller risk ratio and net recipient trading volume (ETH) also suggest that the market may be peaking. These signals are consistent with the bearish on-chain data observed in last week's price movements.
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