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From Bitcoin to Memecoin: What will be the prominent trends in the last months of 2024?
What trends are likely to attract attention in the last months of 2024?
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Duy Nguyen
Published Sep 17 2024
Updated Oct 21 2024
8 min read
The crypto market at the beginning of 2024 has undergone many fluctuations with a series of events and trends occurring, contributing to shaping the market's dynamics and community perception as it stands today. This article will project the trends of the crypto market in the last months of 2024.
Note: All trends in the article are merely projections of the author based on available data and are NOT investment advice. The article is for reference purposes only to provide readers with additional perspectives on the market.
Trend 1: Bitcoin (BTC) and its correlation with gold
The idea of "Bitcoin as digital gold" is no longer new, but the level of support for BTC in the traditional market has changed significantly. From public companies holding BTC, investment funds recommending BTC allocation in portfolios, to countries accumulating BTC or using BTC for payments. BTC is gradually enhancing its value and becoming an asset accepted by many.
Top 10 public companies holding the most BTC. Source: Coingecko
The trading of Bitcoin ETF in the US and the significant capital inflow show American investors' interest in this asset. Notably, a large amount of assets is being managed by major financial institutions like Grayscale, Bitwise, BlackRock, which helps reinforce investor confidence in Bitcoin.
Bitcoin ETF trading volume. Source: coinglass.com
When comparing the price charts of BTC and gold, we see a significant correlation. However, in recent months, these two asset classes have somewhat decoupled as gold prices continuously hit new highs while BTC has slightly decreased and moved sideways. Nonetheless, with increasing approval for BTC and the instability from macro factors, it is possible that BTC will respond like the price of gold in the coming time.
Comparing price behavior of BTC and gold prices
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Trend 2: Ethereum (ETH) growth stimulates the altcoin market
As analyzed in the article "The Shift in Crypto Trends", Ethereum has many potential factors to attract attention in the near future such as the launch of Ethereum ETF, the development of layer 2 solutions, and new trends like restaking,...
The sustainable development of Ethereum may be a sign of a reversal as indicators in the ecosystem have hit very low levels, such as gas fees often dropping below 1 GWEI and the "Crypto Fear & Greed" index reaching fear levels, reflecting the market's depressed sentiment.
The price behavior of ETH is closely correlated with the market capitalization of altcoins, therefore, the growth of ETH is likely to stimulate the development of the altcoin market.
Comparing price behavior of ETH and crypto3 market capitalization
*Crypto3: The market capitalization of crypto excluding BTC, ETH, and Stablecoin.
However, even if Ethereum grows back, not all altcoins will rise accordingly. Besides tokens directly related to ETH like ETHW, layer 2 tokens and tokens in the restaking sector have the potential to receive capital flows, only tokens with good "pump hooks" can attract attention. These tokens will be mentioned later.
Trend 3: The return of project coins
As mentioned in the article "The Importance of FDV", the trend of low initial supply and high FDV has significantly impacted the price behavior of tokens.
Low supply leads to a sharp increase in token prices in the early stages, creating opportunities for early investors to achieve high returns. However, this also leads to sell-off phenomena when tokens are unlocked, even through channels like OTC trading to sell before the unlocking point.
Price behavior of some high FDV tokens with low initial supply
In the coming months, a large number of tokens will continue to be unlocked, creating selling pressure even when the market is more optimistic.
Token unlock schedule of some projects. Source: Token Unlocks
If capital flows return to project coins, they are likely to focus on:
OG projects in the market that have been operational for a long time and have a large circulating token supply, especially projects that continuously develop products and new updates like Uniswap, Aave with version V4.
Projects related to prominent trends like AI with tokens like WLD, FET...
Layer 2 coins on Ethereum and long-established layer 1s still maintain their network effects, such as ARB, OP, SOL, SUI, APT.
Project coins with high FDV and low initial supply may experience strong fluctuations, but do not rule out the possibility of growth returning after a long period of decline. To minimize risk, it is advisable to select projects that have announced valuations in early investment rounds. The closer the FDV of the coin is to the initial valuation, the less selling pressure there will be.
Valuation announced and current FDV of some projects
In addition to project coins, meme coins may also attract attention again in the current context.
Trend 4: Top meme coins attract attention again
According to statistics from Coingecko (here), since the beginning of the year, most of the high-performing tokens have belonged to meme coins and tokens in the Solana ecosystem. The strong growth of leading meme coins has led to capital flows to smaller meme coins. Each day, around 40,000 to 50,000 new meme coins are created, mainly on ecosystems with low transaction costs and fast processing speeds like Solana and BSC.
The attraction of smaller meme coins also drives the development of trading bots on Telegram and anti-rug pull launchpads like Pump.Fun, further promoting the growth of this market.
Trading volume through Telegram Trading Bots. Source: Dune Analytics
However, with the enormous number of meme coins created every day, the loss rate when participating in this market is very high.
For example, on Solana, at the time of writing, there were 13,268 meme coins launched within 24 hours on Pump.fun, but only 184 coins had enough liquidity to be listed on the DEX Raydium. The ratio of successfully acquiring coins only reached 1.3%. With such a high loss rate, the number of participants in this platform is likely to gradually decrease over time.
PumpFun metrics. Source: Dune Analytics
In the context of project tokens under significant selling pressure due to high FDV and low initial supply, meme coins may continue to attract capital flows in the near future. However, attention will be focused on quality meme coins with strong communities and long-lasting existence like DOGE, PEPE, or top meme coins in developed ecosystems like WIF of Solana and BRETT of Base.
A development cycle often lasts many years and can occur in various scenarios. When investors find the "key," the market may have already "changed the lock." Trends may unfold slower than projected, or even go against projections. Therefore, investors need to be aware of risks and allocate capital appropriately.
