Bitcoin has entered an 'exuberance phase' based on the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) of long-term holders.
This could extend Bitcoin's bullish phase until the end of 2025, according to Quinten François, co-founder of WeRate, who wrote on social media X on December 7:
"Bitcoin is entering a phase of exuberance. You have up to 12 months before the cycle peaks."
The NUPL index measures the profit or loss state of the entire Bitcoin network, based on the difference between unrealized profits and unrealized losses among BTC holders.
Another positive signal for Bitcoin's outlook is the all-time high price achieved despite a decline in global liquidity, according to James Coutts, head of cryptocurrency analysis at Real Vision, who wrote on X on December 6:
"Bitcoin has reached a new ATH amidst declining global liquidity. If the situation worsens, the bullish phase, though euphoric, can only last for a short time. If conditions improve, prices may correct, but then continue to rise."
The potential bottom in global M2 liquidity — an index estimating total cash and short-term bank deposits — also indicates that Bitcoin may continue its bullish phase in the short term before any correction occurs.
Based on correlation with liquidity indicators, Bitcoin is expected to reach a 'local peak' above $110,000 in January 2025, according to Raoul Pal, founder and CEO of Global Macro Investor.
The Realized Price Index of STH Bitcoin also supports Raoul Pal's view.
Specifically, short-term holders (STH) – those holding Bitcoin for a maximum of 155 days – will see key profit milestones at standard deviations of this index. They correspond to levels of $110,000 and $120,000.
