Recently, the market has experienced quite a bit of fluctuation, leading many investors to ponder: has the first half of the Bitcoin bull market really ended? Based on the following reasons, we might indeed be approaching an important turning point, or in other words, Bitcoin has entered a temporary correction period:
Reason 1: The alternating of the seventh and eighth waves on the weekly chart.
The current weekly chart of Bitcoin shows that it has entered the seventh wave, and the next week is very likely to enter the eighth wave. According to historical patterns, even-numbered waves are often correction phases, experiencing ups and downs, severe fluctuations, and even 'pin' style consolidation repairs. This correction may bring about short-term bearish energy, and the price may correct to around $78,000 to build momentum for the subsequent rise. This cyclical repair is also an inevitable adjustment phase in a bull market, indicating a brief rest of the upward momentum.
Reason 2: The monthly lower wick is too short, leading to a large correction space.
From the monthly chart, the current lower wick is noticeably short, indicating a significant downward space. Generally, a short lower wick can easily lead to a market correction, especially in the current $104,000 region, where major funds may be recovering at this position, raising it to $104,000 while attracting more retail investors to follow, thereby enabling the main players to better cash out and sell. This month's bearish candlestick cross pattern coincides with the demand for an eighth wave correction. A cross generally indicates indecision in the market, and once the price corrects to a suitable level and the bearish energy is gradually digested, the market may experience a new round of upward momentum.
Reason 3: The approaching Spring Festival intensifies the phenomenon of capital return.
Another factor that cannot be ignored is the approach of the Spring Festival. Every year at this time, not only do Chinese investors need to cash out funds, but many fund managers and institutions will also make asset adjustments and liquidations in preparation for the New Year. In particular, retail investors and institutions referred to as 'pigs' here begin to concentrate on cashing out fiat currency, leading to a certain liquidity tightness in the market, which may also affect the short-term price fluctuations. Therefore, the market before and after the Spring Festival may experience a wave of concentrated capital outflow or reallocation, further intensifying the price correction pressure.
Summary:
From the current trend of Bitcoin, a correction period may be approaching in the short term, which could last until around the Spring Festival. The short-term market correction and the changes in liquidity will have a certain impact on the price, which may find support around $78,000 while waiting for the release of bearish energy. Once the correction is complete, there is still significant room for the second phase of the bull market.
So, if you are trading Bitcoin or altcoins, it is currently advisable to moderately reduce your positions or implement risk control, and wait for the market to clarify further before deciding whether to increase your holdings. The first half of the bull market may have ended, but the opportunities ahead are still worth looking forward to. Follow me to seize the right moment; wealth is still waiting for you ahead!