Big events are coming, and speculations precede them.
1. Domestic affairs that Chinese investors will focus on in the coming week include not only 'important meetings' but also a series of economic data.
· On Monday, China will announce December CPI and PPI data, which may also be 'one good, one bad'. Economists expect November CPI to slightly rebound to 0.5% (up from 0.3% in October), while PPI may decrease by 2.8% (down from 2.9% in October).
· On Tuesday, China will release trade data, which is also likely to be 'one good, one bad'. Economists expect that November exports may increase by 8.4%, down from 12.7% in October. Imports may increase by 0.8%, compared to a decline of 2.3% in October, indicating a slight improvement in domestic demand.
· On Wednesday and Thursday (December 11-12), an important meeting will be held in December (which also took place on the same dates last year), where economic goals for 2025 will be set, and it may involve directional guidance on fiscal stimulus and monetary policy. Expectations for this meeting have driven stock markets up this week. If the news from the meeting exceeds market expectations, it may trigger further gains in the stock market; conversely, if the results fall short of expectations, the market may face pressure to correct.
2. Wall Street will closely watch the US November CPI data to be released next Wednesday, with related speculations already overwhelming during the weekend. This data will serve as the basis for the Fed's decision on whether to cut rates in December; if there are signs that inflation progress has stalled, it may lead the Fed to halt rate cuts.
· Bloomberg's 'Fed Communications' Craig Torres reported that the Fed has not yet decided whether to cut rates in December. Although the rebound in November employment growth has prompted the Fed to consider a rate cut, the growth is not substantial, and the Fed needs to wait for key inflation data to be released before making a decision.
· Economists expect the US November CPI to show a recovery trend, rising to 2.7% (previous value was 2.6%). Meanwhile, the core CPI for November is expected to rise for the fourth consecutive month, year-on-year, to 3.3%.
· According to the latest forecast released by Bank of America for 2025, inflation is expected to remain stubborn, with core PCE projected to reach 2.8% by the end of 2025 (the Fed's inflation target is 2%).
From both short-term and long-term perspectives, the inflation situation is not optimistic, and there is a possibility that the Fed may change its stance at the last minute.
3. Additionally, it should be noted that tonight NBC will release content from an exclusive interview with Trump, which will be the biggest variable facing the global market.
The tense atmosphere before the market opening has already unfolded.
If you want to see our deeper insights into the global market, feel free to subscribe to (Global Market Strategy: Winter Silence, Let Some People Celebrate First), where volatility hides in tranquility, and some have already started to position themselves. The US dollar is signaling a top, the RMB has entered an emergency state, and all gold traders are looking at technical charts... After a week of silence, market volatility is about to explode.
Report Highlights:
· First, today we released the (Fear and Greed Index Report: A Burning World), which shows significant changes in risk appetite across major markets after this week's close, with major signals appearing in the US dollar, RMB, Nvidia, A-shares, Chinese government bonds, US stocks, crude oil, Bitcoin, Litecoin, and other markets.
· Second, by deconstructing the logic framework of 'Trump Deal 2.0' into three phases, we deduce the timing of major changes in the global market. Additionally, we have released predictions for the December levels of A-shares, US stocks, gold, crude oil, Hong Kong stocks, Bitcoin, etc. According to our calculations, the volatility of the global market in December is expected to be comparable to that in November.
· Third, Trump's 'trade representative team' has been formed, but who will lead it? What does Trump want? Why hasn't China contacted Trump? Will the RMB fire the first shot in the currency war? We will tell you more insider information.
· Fourth, Wall Street has named 14 Chinese stocks to watch this week, with 2 receiving an 'overweight' rating.
