🤔 Greetings, crypto world! I have been working in financial markets, including cryptocurrency, for quite a long time. During this time, I have seen much – rises, falls, euphoria, and despair. And today I want to talk about a phenomenon that often perplexes experienced investors: WHY DO BEGINNERS OFTEN GET LUCKY, while veterans face failures?
📈 Many of you have probably seen this picture: a beginner, barely grasping the basics, invests money in some little-known coin, and it soars by hundreds of percentages. Meanwhile, an experienced trader, having gone through many cycles, using complex strategies and analytical tools, is constantly losing money. Why does this happen? The answer lies not only in luck but also in psychology.
🍀BEGINNER'S LUCK (or "beginner's luck"):
🤔 Beginners often possess what experienced investors lack – a clear perception and absence of cognitive biases. They are not overwhelmed by informational noise, not fixated on past failures, and do not experience strong emotional pressure. They do not know that "it shouldn't be this way," and therefore do not feel fear of risk. They are more prone to impulsive actions that in some cases can lead to unexpected gains. This is a kind of availability heuristic - they remember successful trades more easily than failed ones and overestimate their intuition.
⚠️ Cognitive biases of experienced traders:
🤔 Experienced investors often suffer from a number of cognitive biases that hinder them from making rational decisions:
📉Survivorship bias:
They focus on successful projects and strategies, ignoring numerous failures. This creates an illusion of control and predictability in the market.
🤔 Confirmation bias:
They tend to seek information that confirms their already formed opinion and ignore contradictory data.
😰 Loss of aversion:
The fear of losing money is stronger than the desire for profit. This leads to premature profit-taking and prolonging losing positions.
🤯 Overconfidence:
Years of experience can create an illusion of superiority and contempt for risk.
🔥 Too complex strategies:
Attempts to use overly complicated models that do not take into account the random factor of the market.
🤯 Psychological aspect:
🤔 Experienced traders often experience strong stress, which affects their ability to make balanced decisions. They are prone to burnout and emotional exhaustion, which negatively impacts their performance. Beginners, on the other hand, have not yet accumulated this "baggage."
✅ Success in the crypto market, like in any other market, depends not only on knowledge and experience but also on psychological resilience. A beginner's "luck" is often a result of the absence of cognitive biases and emotional pressure. Experienced investors must actively combat their psychological "demons," develop self-analysis, and apply risk management methods. Success is a continuous effort to improve oneself, not just a fortunate trade.
⚠️ It is important to remember: high returns are always associated with high risk. No one can guarantee profit, and success in the market is the result of hard work, discipline, and risk management, not just luck.
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