Admitting one's stupidity is a difficult thing. I hope this reflection can make my future self calmer and more determined.

The period from July to September has been very torturous and anxious for me.

Social media, group chats, and friends are conveying one message: value investing is a waste, go all in on meme coins.

Pump fun, Wang Xiaoer, overnight thousandfold, getting rich and exiting, sweeping the chain, getting on board, narratives, angles.

If you don't make a hundred times, it means you're not working hard enough.

People who are more capable and wealthier than me are all playing with memes.

The painful point is that I correctly judged that interest rates would be cut in the second half of the year, at the latest by early next year, but after the rate cut in September, apart from BTC and memes, other altcoins are in a sea of corpses.

This discrepancy between cognition and reality makes me doubt my judgment, and I am no longer confident in holding the coins I bought.

Now it seems to be a major bottom.

In October, I suddenly woke up when I saw on Odaily that 98% of people on pump fun are losing money. I consider myself ordinary, not one of that 2%, so why am I still anxious?

Reassessing: After the Federal Reserve enters the rate-cutting phase, it will last for 12-18 months, and the bull market speculation may have another 6-12 months.

Look for value coins and gradually buy back positions.

The first wave of the bull market will definitely be public chains like Solana and Avalanche.

The leading meme coins are the best mascots for public chains, like Sats Bonk.

For the application explosion, we must focus on domain names like cyber, id, wld.

The shovel crosses bull and bear markets; DEX is the shovel: CRV, ARKM, MAV, RWA is also a shovel, usual (having experienced more than 20% loss).

I have no intention of belittling meme players (please protect me).

If you are also very anxious, don't rush. First determine what type of player you are, then choose the track mode.

If you are also research-oriented, slow to warm up, and have a delayed gratification type, let's study tokens together.

Feel free to DM if you want to invest and research together.

Some abandoned targets:

Gal has no growth momentum, and the cost-performance ratio is not high; the AI track has narrowed; the team is still okay, will pay attention from time to time.

Jup has chaotic team management; the airdrop issue has not been resolved for months.

Pixel is a gold mining studio that mines and sells, long-term selling pressure.

Bome is not well operated, and the community is languishing.