Trump has demonstrated through his actions that he has the ability to catch global markets off guard, leading to increased volatility.
As Monday opened, a cold wind blew through, and the global market felt a hint of chill.
1. The dollar index opened slightly higher, obviously influenced by Trump's tariff threats on Saturday. However, the rise in the dollar index is very mild, so the remaining time today still faces uncertainty, and the market may respond with a delay or may simply refrain from action.
2. Markets like gold, silver, crude oil, and offshore RMB are all under pressure due to the rise of the dollar. If last week's decline in the dollar index is confirmed to have been solely influenced by month-end position adjustments, then other markets may have the potential to turn down today (correcting their uptrend).
3. The Chinese stock market's ability to emerge from an independent trend today is a major focus, with investors eagerly anticipating more effective stimulus policies. Last Friday, rumors circulated online that an important meeting would be held ahead of schedule, and that the fiscal deficit target for 2025 would be higher than usual, contributing to the momentum. Trump has already made his move, and people have high hopes that subsequent policies will more effectively respond to challenges.
Compared to the stock market, professionals are paying more attention to - China's national bond yields approaching new lows, indicating that investors are once again turning to safer havens and withdrawing from the stock market. The yield on 10-year government bonds is just a step away from the 2% it first touched at the end of September, testing the central bank again. The central bank will need to choose between cooling the bond market and loosening monetary policy, and this decision will profoundly reveal the central bank's policy priorities.
4. This week will enter a mode of 'major events happening daily,' especially with Friday's non-farm payroll data drawing significant attention. Based on past experience, the market tends to react in advance on the Monday of the week when non-farm data is released every Friday.
It is also worth noting that we have now entered the last month of 2024, and there is a need for funds to rebalance positions at year-end. Anyone hoping for a peaceful final month of the year may feel disappointed.
Over the past five years, the dollar has weakened every December, while global stock markets have averaged a 2.5% increase. Will this time be different?
