11.8 Daily Preview. Today is Wednesday, let’s have a retro weekly review.
First of all, in terms of data, there have been changes in the CME positions that have not been paid attention to for some time. First of all, the dealers with the largest capital volume are still mainly short-selling, and they continued to increase their short positions last Saturday. The current long-short ratio is close to 1/8; on the other hand, the Ever-Victorious Leveraged Fund has finally begun to slowly admit defeat and close its short positions and increase its long positions. Currently, the long-short ratio of leveraged funds is gradually tending towards 1/2.
Next is the data set. First, the fee rate is quite healthy overall. In fact, in the past two weeks, only one fake fee rate appeared, and then it returned to normal in a wave of small looting. Then the long-short ratio looks very comfortable. The values of Binance and OK have reached a relatively low position (0.81 and 0.82), and the visual sense of short positions has appeared for a long time. In this case, if there is also the fuel of open interest, it will be icing on the cake.
Finally, looking at the open interest, it has broken through the high of the year from the U-standard perspective (Figure 1), but the currency-standard perspective is actually not particularly high. The logic of open interest has been mentioned in the previous review. Try to look at the currency-standard perspective. Only novices look at its U-standard perspective. Therefore, the current accumulation of fuel is not very sufficient and explosive, which is a bit regrettable for bulls.
After looking at the data, let’s look at some Schrödinger’s stuff. As shown in the picture, this is the current status of the Bitcoin spot ETF, which has “passed but not completely passed.”
The reason why I say "excessive" is that apart from the good show of BlackRock some time ago, the overall market trading volume has indeed been magnified in real money. Since 26,000 to 35,000, at least the incremental funds on Bitcoin are not something that retail investors like us can buy. This can basically be confirmed to be an open "insider trading" by the big leeks (institutions or others).
But why do we say “not completely passed”? Because no one knows what twists and turns there will be before the SEC officially announces it. To be honest, the SEC is actually quite confused now. They know that it must pass and they need to approve many companies one after another, but they don’t want to see the crypto world get too excited in advance. Therefore, the approval opinion on ARK on November 11 is quite interesting, which will directly show the SEC’s true attitude at the moment:
If ARK is rejected directly, it will undoubtedly pour cold water on the crypto world, and discussions that other ETFs have never had will be brought to the table;
If ARK's ETF is directly approved, then BlackRock, which has been jumping up and down, will become a clown.
Therefore, I think the possibility that SEC will choose to postpone ARK in this Double Eleven crisis is relatively higher, so as not to offend both sides. Under the current market situation of sideways decline around 35,000, such a choice has the highest priority on the impact on market volatility (it may cause a short-term correction but the amplitude is not large). In addition, since the data of the three sets (fee rate, long-short ratio, and open interest) are in favor of bulls, if SEC gives the green light to ARK directly on Friday, it will not be a problem to quickly rush to 42,000 with the burst of shorts and boiling emotions. However, it is also necessary to pay attention to the eternal truth that all good news will turn into bad news, so don't chase it at the highest point.
