$BTC is at 9.4W, while altcoins are still half-alive, with many coins appearing to be in a suicidal state?
Don't rush! Let's review the last bull market; the situation was surprisingly similar!
I subtracted the market cap of several mainstream stablecoins from the Total3 market cap to obtain the overall market cap of altcoins excluding BTC and ETH. Let's see what happened in the last bull market.
As shown in the picture above, I identified 4 important time nodes: on 20/12/16, $BTC broke through previous highs and surged to 21/1/8, doubling its increase, while the overall market cap of altcoins remained almost unchanged. Even during a slight 10% pullback of $BTC over a few days, there was a 36% pullback in altcoins, which can be described as terrifying. It can be imagined that many small market cap coins might have seen their values nearly halved. 🤣
BTC experienced a 27% pullback within 3 days starting from 21/1/8, while altcoins synchronized with a 36% pullback. The peak of this pullback compared to the $BTC breakout high only had a 46% increase in altcoin market cap. 😭
However, after the first major pullback of $BTC, altcoins finally began to rise. During the period when $BTC pulled back and initiated a second wave of increase to 5.7W on 21/2/21, the overall market cap of altcoins increased by 197%, which is quite significant.
After $BTC hit a new high of 5.7W on 21/2/21, it faced a rapid adjustment lasting 7 days with a 27% decrease. Altcoin market cap was still not spared, falling 39% from its peak, and remained in a consolidation range until 21/3/26.
Then, starting from 3/26, the market cap of ALT rebounded with a strong daily line from $BTC, initiating a charge lasting one and a half months, with the overall market cap increasing by 119% from its high at the end of February to reach the peak on 5/12.
What happened at the peak on 5/12? In fact, there were two important events. First, on 5/11, $shib was listed on Binance, marking the climax of MEME. Secondly, many might not know, the U.S. CPI data released in April 2021 exploded, reaching a new high after COVID, with U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index surging sharply. Yes, it was at that time I focused on macroeconomics and found the exit point for the first phase of the 2021 bull market. 🫰
Therefore, the conclusion is that during the entire process where $BTC continuously reached new highs until it reached a temporary peak and started the first significant pullback, the overall market cap of altcoins was drained. It is inevitable that the pullback will be greater than that of $BTC, as has been repeatedly verified in both this and the previous bull market.
However, optimistically, based on the positive feedback from time cycles and capital flow, the bull market initiated by Bitcoin is unlikely to replicate the tragic scenario of mid-year this year, where only Bitcoin was strong while most altcoins reached new lows. #BTC再创新高97k
