Some people say that the bull market is coming, while others say that it is just the beginning. Sorry to disappoint you. This is not the bull market I understand. If you think that I have to analyze and affect your desire for the bull market, I would like to say: I am sorry. Your funds are your own, and your transactions are also your own. No one can be responsible for your transactions. It is respect for your own capital to learn more about the market and make your own judgment. If the market here must be named a bull, I can only define it as a "rebound bull". We are in a rebound bull.
Today I will tell you why I don’t think the bull market has arrived, but only the beginning of the bull market. Even if you really miss the beginning of the bull market, this position in the middle of the bull market will still give you opportunities.
Let’s take a look at the following two pictures. Picture 1 shows the trend from 2018 to 2019, and Picture 2 shows the trend from last year to this year. Have you discovered anything?
First of all, let's ask ourselves, now is the bull market, where should we pull it to? To 100,000 yuan? To 200,000 yuan? Do you believe it yourself? How much money do you need to get 40,000 yuan at the beginning of the bull market? Moreover, the previous bull market was a double-top bull market, with a huge amount of locked-in shares. There is currently a wait-and-see fund in the market, which is not to say that there is no fund at all. Can the promotion of ETFs such as BlackRock bring in a huge amount of funds? When did the dog dealer transform and turn to the ideal type?
Secondly, let's look at the bull market in the past. Before the bull market, there must be a plummeting gray swan event, and the market will continue to drop until you despair. Can you ask yourself if such a situation has ever occurred? Even if it was 2.5 in June and July and 20,000 in March, at least there is a bottom. The bottom of the bull market is an unexpected position, and it is definitely not the bottom you can see. Only when there is despair, the banker has the opportunity to pick up chips. Even the textbooks do not teach this.
Then who lost money in the market? Investors who have been playing with the big pie, who lost money in the past year or so? Some people will say that when the 20,000-2.50,000 fluctuates, some people will sell at a loss. Think about it yourself. Is it reasonable? For the holders of the big pie, will they care about a 20-point fluctuation? Moreover, since 1.5, the 2-2.5 support has been raised. Only fools will see a 20-point fluctuation in the spot and specialize in selling at the bottom. No one loses money, so where does the market maker go to absorb the funds? Will the retail investors be made first?
Let's look at 2018, before March 12, didn't it have a position? Corresponding to the current position, we can regard 15,000 as a bottom, right? Then according to reason, it should return to above 15,000 or 18,000, and it will make another bottoming move. The corresponding one is this year, at the end of the year or next year, it can come down again, this is the real opportunity for us to get on the train, so there is a second bottom, that is to say, if you calculate it at 15,000, it should have another bottom at 18,000 or 15,000, it can give you a gap of 13,000, or even 9,000 to fill.
And it has really come to this point. I believe that after the replenishment of 2.4, 2.2, 2, and 1.8, when the price reaches the extreme limit at 1.5, 1.3, and 9,000, most people have no more bullets in their hands. The bullets in the market are almost used up. The long-term sideways trading at the bottom makes you forget about the cryptocurrency circle. This is the opportunity. The bottom is flat, not V-shaped.
But now, the second bottom has not appeared. So far, it has not appeared. If you were to look at it, where do you think the bottom before the bull market starts, that is, the second bottom, would be?
So this is what I have been saying. Currently, we can only use 3.4 as the short-term dividing line. If it falls below 3.32, we will consider the stage top of 3.6. As for whether it will find a new starting point to rush higher, then be trapped and test the bottom, and then have a large-scale second test, that is the plan for the future. But for me personally, this rule will not change.
Whether it is the receipt situation of BlackRock's Cathie Wood and other ETFs from a macro perspective or the usual BTC pullback before the Spring Festival every year, the script I gave you is at this time point. So now, for traders, the probability of the last wave of lure to buy is very high, with continuous high-level pulling and shocks, isn't this true?
Don't be anxious if you don't have any chips in this period. The most dangerous variable is to enter the market after the peak, because it must fall to the extreme, then everyone will be trapped, and then you can pick up chips with peace of mind and prepare for the future bull market. Like the current market, the higher it goes, the more you can't chase it for spot goods. It's better to let it miss, because you have to believe that there will be a real opportunity for you to buy the bottom later. Because it must trap you, it must fall to the end, so that it can better buy the bottom, right?
If you dare to copy, then how can the dealer pick up cheap chips? Just like what happened on 312, basically 90% of the people have no money to enter the market. Since you have no money, the dealer can pick up the chips slowly, because many people will cut their losses. For example, those who bought at more than 7,000 or 5,000 have all fallen by more than 50% or 70%. They can't bear it, and you have no money, so the dealer will keep sucking.
Even if we see it as the beginning of the bull market in early 2019, there will still be a downward trend. Don't think that the dog dealer is a good guy. Now is the beginning of the bull market, and you can't buy cheaper. The best thing to do later is to see a rebound in Ethereum and a rebound in altcoins. This is the only way to look at it.
Remember, no matter how big the decline is, always leave yourself at least four layers of positions. The real bottom will make you desperate to cover your positions, so desperate that you can't cover them anymore, and you have no bullets in your hands to cover them, rather than pulling the market directly before you have covered them. At this time, I actually know that about 60% of people are already on the train, because after all, there are still many old leeks who understand this rule. They either entered earlier or are now reducing their positions. This is my personal feeling.
So, whether it is through macro-level or technical analysis, is the bull market coming?
