11.3 Daily Outlook
After more than a month of fierce court battles, SBF was finally found guilty. He faces up to 115 years in prison for seven counts of fraud and conspiracy. The jury system in the United States is relatively "democratic". The prosecution and the defense select candidates from a list of candidates, and the jury decides whether the defendant is guilty or not guilty. The final specific sentencing is decided by the judge.
Today, the price of Bitcoin and the shutdown of Shanzhai have poured cold water on the warm wind of the past half month. The fees of various companies have gradually returned to normal, and the overall mood has dropped a lot. From the perspective of endurance, there is nothing wrong with taking a break. After officially entering the beginning of November, the FTX explosion storm is about to be one year old. Compared with the mood during this period last year (breaking 20,000, eternal bear market? The currency circle is gone?), the current drizzle is really nothing. The atmosphere at the end of the bear market is like this. The echo circle of old leeks who look up and down is afraid of grinding. It is normal to struggle and consume internal consumption repeatedly between FOMO and FUD under slight market fluctuations (I am one of them). So if everyone does feel a little worried today, you might as well think back to whether you have been worried that 32,000 is the high point of the year for most of this year.
Finally, I would like to mention the spot positions after a long absence. In the first half of the year, our overall idea was to build a half-position of Bitcoin + Auntie as the bottom position. In Q3, we took advantage of the opportunity of Bitcoin's callback to 26,000 to lay out 2 layers of bloody copycat chips. In fact, it is completely OK to hold 7 layers of warehouses until the beginning of next year or even the middle of the year. After all, the big bull has not come yet. But from a rather radical perspective, the 7-layer warehouse may no longer be suitable for the current version of the environment. Looking at the global scope, the risk aversion of various markets continues to be far beyond imagination. However, the macro circuit breaker event caused by the oil crisis + the black swan of the epidemic in early 2020 is difficult to reproduce. At the same time, there is not much atmosphere similar to the end of 2019 and the beginning of 2020 when everyone was betting on halving. In this context, the chip structure and leverage level of Bitcoin have a good chance of being maintained within a healthy and controllable range. Based on the above logic, it is actually quite difficult to reproduce the 312-level gold pit next year. It is better to keep 3 layers of warehouses and wait for the corpse. It is better to go against human nature and be reckless. I think I can find an opportunity to sell out the last three-level warehouse within this month (choose one copycat). Of course, the specific plan and timing need to be decided after observing the details.
