Hello everyone, today is November 3, 2023. Today we will talk about Bitcoin, this naughty little guy, will it retrace?

First of all, let me tell you a secret. For more than a year, I have been guessing the thoughts of Bitcoin’s main players, and my guess is quite accurate, so I guess I won’t disappoint you this time. Closer to home, Bitcoin is at a high level now. It has been a definite decision to raise interest rates before, but this time it will not raise interest rates. Is this good for Bitcoin?

In my opinion, this time is a bit special. Because the market knew a month in advance that interest rates would not be raised this time, and this was expected for a long time. Therefore, since the market already knows it, the lack of interest rate hike this time is not necessarily a good thing. As discussed before, a good thing is not necessarily a good thing, and a bad thing is not necessarily a bad thing.

So, will there be a situation this time where the "26K CPI negative 3.7" good thing last time is actually a bad thing? This requires us to always pay attention to the movements of the main force. The main force may use people's thinking to raise or suppress prices with the help of good or bad news. But in the long term, these fluctuations are trivial, because interest rate hikes are already a certainty.

Let’s now take a look at the daily chart to see the trend of Bitcoin before and after each time the Federal Reserve raises interest rates. Basically every reaction is in the opposite direction, and the main force will use people's habitual thinking to drive prices. Therefore, a good thing may not necessarily be a good thing, and a bad thing may not necessarily be a bad thing, depending on where you are.

Let's look back at history. Judging from some of the fluctuations last year, the main players used space to speculate. For example, at the high point of 26K, the Fed only raised interest rates by 50 basis points. Everyone thought it was a good thing. As a result, the main players However, it operates in the opposite direction and allows the price to retrace, but you should note that this is a short-term retracement.

Then, let's continue to look at the subsequent trend. The main force will hype people's expectations and act in advance. Just like the previous high of 25K, I dared to buy and go long. Therefore, even if the price has reached a high level now, we don't have to worry, because for more than a year, I have been tracking the main force's movements. The main force may pull up when the short-term low is low, and the mid-line will continue to wait and see, waiting for the space to be low before making another move. .

Okay, that’s all we’re talking about today.

☞Warm reminder:

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