With Trump's election, the crypto market entered the fourth year of a loose environment, and Bitcoin finally broke through the consolidation range of over 250 days, starting to break upwards, with the price once soaring to 75000 USD, hitting a historic high. Trump's ten important statements regarding Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies injected strong momentum into the market.
The interest rate meeting at 3 a.m. yesterday was held as scheduled, and the Federal Reserve decided to lower the interest rate by 25 basis points, announcing that the rate cut cycle will continue. After the US market opened, Bitcoin responded by rising sharply, breaking new highs, reaching 76849 USD, setting a historic new high.
On the other hand, due to various factors such as V God's romance and the Ethereum Foundation selling coins, Ethereum's (ETH) performance has not been ideal, but recently it has shown a good upward trend, continuously breaking new highs. After breaking through 2800, it strongly surpassed 2900 yesterday, and it is expected to challenge 3000 next. This 'millennium old second' has finally caught up; as long as V God and the Ethereum Foundation no longer encounter chaos, the prospects for ETH remain promising.
The strong performance of altcoins has also driven many altcoins to achieve significant increases within just three days. Coins like ETH and SOL have started to surge wildly. Market sentiment is clearly warming up; when Bitcoin was rising alone, everyone couldn’t really feel the atmosphere of a bull market.
With Bitcoin hitting new highs and the potential shift in crypto regulation after Trump's presidency, funds are more likely to start flowing into the altcoin market, ushering in the altcoin season. The atmosphere of a major crypto bull market is becoming increasingly apparent!
Why do I dare to go all in at the Ethereum position of 2350?
"All in" is premised on my firm belief that we are currently in a bull market. This belief involves my long-term faith in the crypto market and some technical analysis factors regarding Bitcoin, but I don’t intend to elaborate here. In simple terms, there are several main points:
The initiation of the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle is a certainty, and the increase in global liquidity is almost a high-probability event; there has been no precedent for a reversal in the past 50 years. This provides a strong background and favorable environment for the market.
The halving bull market brought by Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle has never been broken. This is a market rule; similar to carving a boat to seek a sword, historical trends are difficult to violate.
I believe that true large funds, large institutions, and smart money are not fools. Big institutions like BlackRock launching Bitcoin spot ETFs aim to create a huge reservoir to absorb new funds in the market. Moreover, the growth rate of Bitcoin spot ETFs far exceeds that of gold ETFs back in the day.
Several indicators worth noting
Returning to Ethereum, the previous drop to Bitcoin was to pave the way for Ethereum. The background at that time was that Bitcoin did not create a new lower low after the second test, and the bottom kept rising. With the onset of rate cuts and the upcoming elections, I made a judgment that the daily trend reversal might have arrived.
At that time, Ethereum basically had no strong performance, whether in terms of growth rate or ETF trading volume, it was far behind Bitcoin. Especially the ETHBTC exchange rate, which had almost dropped to a historical low. Although V God made some efforts to improve this, these actions seemed to have no effect on the price. However, there are several indicators worth paying attention to:
After ETH broke below 2810, it tested and confirmed this position as a resistance level.
On the 4-hour chart, the Wyckoff accumulation trend was at the tail end of Phase B.
The final support point of Phase C is actually uncertain. From the Fibonacci perspective of the box, this support point may be at 2241 (0.786) or 2172 (0.886). Moreover, these two points coincide with the maximum level of the upward trend line.
Amid the friction between Little Yi and Little Yi, regional conflicts often bring opportunities.
Additionally, regarding the Ethereum Foundation's selling situation, from January 1, 2024, to October 23, the foundation has sold a total of 4066 ETH, worth about 11.24 million USD. For the market, this amount is actually not much. The voices regarding V God being 'unprofessional' are also increasing; even V God himself has stated that he has never sold any Ethereum he personally holds. As for matters of sentiment, I haven't heard an official response from V God; if there are related updates, feel free to let me know!
There is also a noteworthy spot ETF barometer, simply put, it is a 'barometer': buy in the unattended places. Ethereum has often experienced net outflows, especially compared to Bitcoin, where it has seen capital outflows many times, sometimes for many days.
At that time, I asked myself and my friends in the group, what is the 'unattended place'? Does this count now? If it doesn’t count now, when will it count?
So, facing the price fluctuation from 2350 to 2000, I have to either bear a potential loss of 14.89% or exchange a floating loss of 15% for a potential gain of 400%. I would still be willing to give it a try!
What price might ETH reach in this bull market?
First, let's clarify that the trend of ETH has completely reversed.
Now that Ethereum has broken through the resistance level of 2820 USD, the DeFi sector has also risen comprehensively, with funds starting to flow from Bitcoin into the Ethereum ecosystem, leading to a significant drop in BTC.D.
The ETH/BTC exchange rate has begun to stabilize; this change is very critical and may mean that the three-year downtrend of ETH relative to Bitcoin has ended, and Ethereum may enter a stage of comprehensive strength.
The market focus has shifted from inscriptions to meme coins, and now the DeFi sector has become the new focal point.
For friends who understand a bit of technical analysis, the breakout at the position of 2810 is very meaningful. Today, Binance's daily closing price of Ethereum is at 2895, which is a strong signal!
Next, I believe that the next stage of the bull market has not yet peaked.
From the current momentum, I personally believe that there will be two more rate cuts this year, and it is very likely that Bitcoin will rise to 85000 before the end of the year.
Even with Trump's presidency, cryptocurrency is not a top priority for the Republican Party. After all, they have many more urgent issues to address, such as military spending, healthcare, etc., which will take precedence over cryptocurrency. Therefore, it would actually be quite good if they could start focusing on cryptocurrency-related policies by the second quarter of 2025. Thus, this process is expected to take longer.
Finally, let's talk about the various indicators of Ethereum:
BTC.D
Bitcoin's market share will gradually decrease, and it is inevitable that Ethereum will secure a place.
OTHERS.D
As the leader of altcoins, ETH is likely to lead the way in the rise. The altcoin index has broken below the weekly and monthly upward trend lines; if it can successfully reclaim the Fibonacci 1.13 position, it can almost be confirmed that we are entering the altcoin season.
ETHBTC
There is an upward trend line at the weekly level for ETH/BTC.
All signs indicate that Ethereum may break through the current pressure; especially the upgrade of Ethereum may bring technical improvements, further increasing the demand for ETH and driving the price up. Additionally, against the backdrop of global economic easing, funds flowing into the crypto market will also lift ETH's price.
So, the potential price range is approximately as follows:
The most conservative estimate is that it may drop to around 5500.
Most people's psychological expectations are between 6000 and 8000.
If anything is unclear or inaccurate, please bear with me; thank you for reading this far!
