Just at 3 a.m. on November 8, the Federal Reserve officially announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, in line with market expectations.
So what impact does this interest rate cut have on us?
1. Open up operating space for domestic monetary policy.
From the perspective of the external environment, the Federal Reserve has started a cycle of interest rate cuts, U.S. Treasury yields have fallen, the U.S. dollar has come under pressure, the pressure on the RMB exchange rate has eased, the external constraints on monetary policy have gradually eased, and policy space has gradually opened up.
From the perspective of the internal environment, the main contradiction in the current economy is the imbalance between supply and demand caused by insufficient effective domestic demand. It is recommended that macroeconomic policies should continue to be exerted and be more forceful, and the reserve requirement ratio should be lowered when necessary and interest rates should be lowered to boost residents' consumption and corporate investment demand.
2. It is conducive to hedging against the downward risks of the global economy and supporting the continued resilience of China's exports.
From a quantitative perspective, the loose monetary policy has eased the downward pressure on the US economy, and the US continues to remain resilient, providing support for my country's exports.
From the perspective of price, the possibility of a sharp depreciation of the US dollar is low, and the appreciation of the RMB will have a negative impact on China.
The impact on the competitiveness of imported goods is relatively limited.
3. It is positive for the domestic stock market, bond market and RMB exchange rate.
The easing of global liquidity will help provide incremental funds for the Chinese stock market. The increase in my country's monetary policy space will drive bond yields down, and the pressure on the US dollar will help stabilize the RMB exchange rate.
In fact, the most direct thing is what fundamental impact it has on us.
I think the most important thing is that the A-share market will respond to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut after the results of this election. Further market liquidity will be beneficial to the A-share market and the real estate industry, which will usher in the next wave of spring.
There is also the issue of digital currency that everyone is concerned about. At this stage, Bitcoin has already broken through its previous historical high, and the Fed's interest rate cut will further stimulate Bitcoin's price to rise again. However, 25 basis points is just in line with market expectations, not very positive. In addition, Bitcoin has experienced a long period of skyrocketing, so I personally think that this interest rate cut will not have a significant impact on Bitcoin's subsequent market to a certain extent.
In my opinion, the bitcoin market may rise again in the future, but there will not be much room for upward movement, and the price will not break through the 80,000 that everyone expects. It is estimated that it will touch the 80,000 at most, and it may usher in a larger dive. So you need to be cautious in your operations.
Let me tell you my opinion and what I will do next.
If it can still rise, I might consider connecting the pin at the top position after the next surge. It must be connected after a surge. A slow rise does not seem to be the peak. I predict that the approximate position may be 78500-79500, which is the expectation of short selling.
As for chasing longs, you can actually do it in many places, but you need to take good defense when doing it. For example, if you want to buy more at a high position, 75,500 is a point, or if you want to operate at night and buy more near 76,000, you can also put the defense at 75,500.
If you don't want to chase the longs, there are many positions to buy after the price falls back, such as the daily line falls back to 73,000, which is a better position.
That's basically all I can see for now.